High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese
Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects. Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been direc...
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Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211454/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32264780 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 |
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7211454 2023-05-15T14:57:58+02:00 High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset 2020-04 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211454/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32264780 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 en eng The Royal Society http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211454/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32264780 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 © 2020 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. CC-BY Biol Lett Population Ecology Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 2020-05-17T00:33:32Z Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects. Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change. Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis. Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017), we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories. Text Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Svalbard Biology Letters 16 4 20200075 |
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PubMed Central (PMC) |
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ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Population Ecology |
spellingShingle |
Population Ecology Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
topic_facet |
Population Ecology |
description |
Quantifying how key life-history traits respond to climatic change is fundamental in understanding and predicting long-term population prospects. Age at first reproduction (AFR), which affects fitness and population dynamics, may be influenced by environmental stochasticity but has rarely been directly linked to climate change. Here, we use a case study from the highly seasonal and stochastic environment in High-Arctic Svalbard, with strong temporal trends in breeding conditions, to test whether rapid climate warming may induce changes in AFR in barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis. Using long-term mark–recapture and reproductive data (1991–2017), we developed a multi-event model to estimate individual AFR (i.e. when goslings are produced). The annual probability of reproducing for the first time was negatively affected by population density but only for 2 year olds, the earliest age of maturity. Furthermore, advanced spring onset (SO) positively influenced the probability of reproducing and even more strongly the probability of reproducing for the first time. Thus, because climate warming has advanced SO by two weeks, this likely led to an earlier AFR by more than doubling the probability of reproducing at 2 years of age. This may, in turn, impact important life-history trade-offs and long-term population trajectories. |
format |
Text |
author |
Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset |
author_facet |
Fjelldal, Mari Aas Layton-Matthews, Kate Lee, Aline Magdalena Grøtan, Vidar Loonen, Maarten J. J. E. Hansen, Brage Bremset |
author_sort |
Fjelldal, Mari Aas |
title |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_short |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_full |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_fullStr |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_full_unstemmed |
High-Arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
title_sort |
high-arctic family planning: earlier spring onset advances age at first reproduction in barnacle geese |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211454/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32264780 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 |
geographic |
Arctic Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Svalbard |
genre |
Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
genre_facet |
Arctic Branta leucopsis Climate change Svalbard |
op_source |
Biol Lett |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7211454/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32264780 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 |
op_rights |
© 2020 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2020.0075 |
container_title |
Biology Letters |
container_volume |
16 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
20200075 |
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1766330049845264384 |