Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System
The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7195403 2023-05-15T17:49:35+02:00 Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith 2020-05-01 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195403/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32358499 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195403/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32358499 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x 2020-05-10T00:29:13Z The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems. Text Ocean acidification PubMed Central (PMC) Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Article Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
The California Current System (CCS) sustains economically valuable fisheries and is particularly vulnerable to ocean acidification, due to its natural upwelling of carbon-enriched waters that generate corrosive conditions for local ecosystems. Here we use a novel suite of retrospective, initialized ensemble forecasts with an Earth system model (ESM) to predict the evolution of surface pH anomalies in the CCS. We show that the forecast system skillfully predicts observed surface pH variations a year in advance over a naive forecasting method, with the potential for skillful prediction up to five years in advance. Skillful predictions of surface pH are mainly derived from the initialization of dissolved inorganic carbon anomalies that are subsequently transported into the CCS. Our results demonstrate the potential for ESMs to provide skillful predictions of ocean acidification on large scales in the CCS. Initialized ESMs could also provide boundary conditions to improve high-resolution regional forecasting systems. |
format |
Text |
author |
Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith |
author_facet |
Brady, Riley X. Lovenduski, Nicole S. Yeager, Stephen G. Long, Matthew C. Lindsay, Keith |
author_sort |
Brady, Riley X. |
title |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_short |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_full |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_fullStr |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System |
title_sort |
skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the california current system |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195403/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32358499 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x |
genre |
Ocean acidification |
genre_facet |
Ocean acidification |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7195403/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32358499 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15722-x |
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Nature Communications |
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11 |
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1 |
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