Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are u...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:7015687 2023-05-15T14:36:52+02:00 Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E. C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F. M. 2020-02-12 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7015687/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32095521 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 en eng American Association for the Advancement of Science http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7015687/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32095521 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY-NC Research Articles Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 2020-03-01T01:23:01Z The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts. Text Arctic PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Science Advances 6 7 eaax6869 |
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Research Articles |
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Research Articles Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E. C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F. M. Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
topic_facet |
Research Articles |
description |
The Arctic region is projected to experience amplified warming as well as strongly increasing precipitation rates. Equally important to trends in the mean climate are changes in interannual variability, but changes in precipitation fluctuations are highly uncertain and the associated processes are unknown. Here, we use various state-of-the-art global climate model simulations to show that interannual variability of Arctic precipitation will likely increase markedly (up to 40% over the 21st century), especially in summer. This can be attributed to increased poleward atmospheric moisture transport variability associated with enhanced moisture content, possibly modulated by atmospheric dynamics. Because both the means and variability of Arctic precipitation will increase, years/seasons with excessive precipitation will occur more often, as will the associated impacts. |
format |
Text |
author |
Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E. C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F. M. |
author_facet |
Bintanja, R. van der Wiel, K. van der Linden, E. C. Reusen, J. Bogerd, L. Krikken, F. Selten, F. M. |
author_sort |
Bintanja, R. |
title |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_short |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_full |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_fullStr |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_full_unstemmed |
Strong future increases in Arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
title_sort |
strong future increases in arctic precipitation variability linked to poleward moisture transport |
publisher |
American Association for the Advancement of Science |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7015687/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32095521 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7015687/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32095521 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC). http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) , which permits use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, so long as the resultant use is not for commercial advantage and provided the original work is properly cited. |
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CC-BY-NC |
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax6869 |
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Science Advances |
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6 |
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7 |
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