Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes
Uncertainties in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) melt propagate into uncertainties in projected mean sea-level (MSL) changes and extreme sea-level (ESL) events. Here we quantify the impact of RCP scenarios and AIS contributions on 21st-century ESL c...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6971016 2023-05-15T13:40:25+02:00 Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes Frederikse, Thomas Buchanan, Maya K. Lambert, Erwin Kopp, Robert E. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Wal, Roderik S. W. van de 2020-01-20 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6971016/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31959769 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6971016/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31959769 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6 © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2020 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6 2020-01-26T01:31:27Z Uncertainties in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) melt propagate into uncertainties in projected mean sea-level (MSL) changes and extreme sea-level (ESL) events. Here we quantify the impact of RCP scenarios and AIS contributions on 21st-century ESL changes at tide-gauge sites across the globe using extreme-value statistics. We find that even under RCP2.6, almost half of the sites could be exposed annually to a present-day 100-year ESL event by 2050. Most tropical sites face large increases in ESL events earlier and for scenarios with smaller MSL changes than extratropical sites. Strong emission reductions lower the probability of large ESL changes but due to AIS uncertainties, cannot fully eliminate the probability that large increases in frequencies of ESL events will occur. Under RCP8.5 and rapid AIS mass loss, many tropical sites, including low-lying islands face a MSL rise by 2100 that exceeds the present-day 100-year event level. Text Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Nature Communications 11 1 |
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Article Frederikse, Thomas Buchanan, Maya K. Lambert, Erwin Kopp, Robert E. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Wal, Roderik S. W. van de Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes |
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Uncertainties in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) melt propagate into uncertainties in projected mean sea-level (MSL) changes and extreme sea-level (ESL) events. Here we quantify the impact of RCP scenarios and AIS contributions on 21st-century ESL changes at tide-gauge sites across the globe using extreme-value statistics. We find that even under RCP2.6, almost half of the sites could be exposed annually to a present-day 100-year ESL event by 2050. Most tropical sites face large increases in ESL events earlier and for scenarios with smaller MSL changes than extratropical sites. Strong emission reductions lower the probability of large ESL changes but due to AIS uncertainties, cannot fully eliminate the probability that large increases in frequencies of ESL events will occur. Under RCP8.5 and rapid AIS mass loss, many tropical sites, including low-lying islands face a MSL rise by 2100 that exceeds the present-day 100-year event level. |
format |
Text |
author |
Frederikse, Thomas Buchanan, Maya K. Lambert, Erwin Kopp, Robert E. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Wal, Roderik S. W. van de |
author_facet |
Frederikse, Thomas Buchanan, Maya K. Lambert, Erwin Kopp, Robert E. Oppenheimer, Michael Rasmussen, D. J. Wal, Roderik S. W. van de |
author_sort |
Frederikse, Thomas |
title |
Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes |
title_short |
Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes |
title_full |
Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes |
title_fullStr |
Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes |
title_full_unstemmed |
Antarctic Ice Sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes |
title_sort |
antarctic ice sheet and emission scenario controls on 21st-century extreme sea-level changes |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6971016/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31959769 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6 |
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Antarctic |
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Antarctic |
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Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
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Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6971016/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31959769 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14049-6 |
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Nature Communications |
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11 |
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1 |
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1766133229010550784 |