Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China
Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used th...
Published in: | Ecology and Evolution |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6912912/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31871644 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5780 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6912912 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6912912 2023-05-15T18:41:56+02:00 Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China Dai, Yunchuan Hacker, Charlotte E. Zhang, Yuguang Li, Wenwen Zhang, Yu Liu, Haodong Zhang, Jingjie Ji, Yunrui Xue, Yadong Li, Diqiang 2019-11-14 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6912912/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31871644 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5780 en eng John Wiley and Sons Inc. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6912912/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31871644 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5780 © 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. CC-BY Original Research Text 2019 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5780 2019-12-29T01:20:38Z Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the current (1950–2000) and future (2041–2060) habitat suitability by combining bioclimatic and environmental variables, and identified potential climate refugia for Tibetan brown bears in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Next, we selected Circuit model to simulate potential migration paths based on current and future climatically suitable habitat. Results indicate a total area of potential suitable habitat under the current climate scenario of approximately 31,649.46 km(2), of which 28,778.29 km(2) would be unsuitable by the 2050s. Potentially suitable habitat under the future climate scenario was projected to cover an area of 23,738.6 km(2). Climate refugia occupied 2,871.17 km(2), primarily in the midwestern and northeastern regions of Yangtze River Zone, as well as the northern region of Yellow River Zone. The altitude of climate refugia ranged from 4,307 to 5,524 m, with 52.93% lying at altitudes between 4,300 and 4,600 m. Refugia were mainly distributed on bare rock, alpine steppe, and alpine meadow. Corridors linking areas of potentially suitable brown bear habitat and a substantial portion of paths with low‐resistance value were distributed in climate refugia. We recommend various actions to ameliorate the impact of climate change on brown bears, such as protecting climatically suitable habitat, establishing habitat corridors, restructuring conservation areas, and strengthening monitoring efforts. Text Ursus arctos PubMed Central (PMC) Bare Rock ENVELOPE(-45.589,-45.589,-60.704,-60.704) Ecology and Evolution 9 23 13278 13293 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Original Research |
spellingShingle |
Original Research Dai, Yunchuan Hacker, Charlotte E. Zhang, Yuguang Li, Wenwen Zhang, Yu Liu, Haodong Zhang, Jingjie Ji, Yunrui Xue, Yadong Li, Diqiang Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China |
topic_facet |
Original Research |
description |
Climate change has direct impacts on wildlife and future biodiversity protection efforts. Vulnerability assessment and habitat connectivity analyses are necessary for drafting effective conservation strategies for threatened species such as the Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus). We used the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to assess the current (1950–2000) and future (2041–2060) habitat suitability by combining bioclimatic and environmental variables, and identified potential climate refugia for Tibetan brown bears in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China. Next, we selected Circuit model to simulate potential migration paths based on current and future climatically suitable habitat. Results indicate a total area of potential suitable habitat under the current climate scenario of approximately 31,649.46 km(2), of which 28,778.29 km(2) would be unsuitable by the 2050s. Potentially suitable habitat under the future climate scenario was projected to cover an area of 23,738.6 km(2). Climate refugia occupied 2,871.17 km(2), primarily in the midwestern and northeastern regions of Yangtze River Zone, as well as the northern region of Yellow River Zone. The altitude of climate refugia ranged from 4,307 to 5,524 m, with 52.93% lying at altitudes between 4,300 and 4,600 m. Refugia were mainly distributed on bare rock, alpine steppe, and alpine meadow. Corridors linking areas of potentially suitable brown bear habitat and a substantial portion of paths with low‐resistance value were distributed in climate refugia. We recommend various actions to ameliorate the impact of climate change on brown bears, such as protecting climatically suitable habitat, establishing habitat corridors, restructuring conservation areas, and strengthening monitoring efforts. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dai, Yunchuan Hacker, Charlotte E. Zhang, Yuguang Li, Wenwen Zhang, Yu Liu, Haodong Zhang, Jingjie Ji, Yunrui Xue, Yadong Li, Diqiang |
author_facet |
Dai, Yunchuan Hacker, Charlotte E. Zhang, Yuguang Li, Wenwen Zhang, Yu Liu, Haodong Zhang, Jingjie Ji, Yunrui Xue, Yadong Li, Diqiang |
author_sort |
Dai, Yunchuan |
title |
Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China |
title_short |
Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China |
title_full |
Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China |
title_fullStr |
Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on Tibetan brown bear (Ursus arctos pruinosus) in Sanjiangyuan National Park, China |
title_sort |
identifying climate refugia and its potential impact on tibetan brown bear (ursus arctos pruinosus) in sanjiangyuan national park, china |
publisher |
John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6912912/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31871644 https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5780 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-45.589,-45.589,-60.704,-60.704) |
geographic |
Bare Rock |
geographic_facet |
Bare Rock |
genre |
Ursus arctos |
genre_facet |
Ursus arctos |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6912912/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31871644 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5780 |
op_rights |
© 2019 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5780 |
container_title |
Ecology and Evolution |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
13278 |
op_container_end_page |
13293 |
_version_ |
1766231505675223040 |