Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment
Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictiv...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6561295 2023-05-15T14:04:03+02:00 Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment Bamber, Jonathan L. Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E. Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M. 2019-06-04 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6561295/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31110015 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6561295/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31110015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . CC-BY-NC-ND Physical Sciences Text 2019 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 2019-06-23T00:21:52Z Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%. Text Antarc* Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet PubMed Central (PMC) East Antarctica Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 116 23 11195 11200 |
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Physical Sciences Bamber, Jonathan L. Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E. Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M. Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
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Physical Sciences |
description |
Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a consequence, the potential contributions of ice sheets remain the largest source of uncertainty in projecting future SLR. Here, we report the findings of a structured expert judgement study, using unique techniques for modeling correlations between inter- and intra-ice sheet processes and their tail dependences. We find that since the AR5, expert uncertainty has grown, in particular because of uncertain ice dynamic effects. For a +2 °C temperature scenario consistent with the Paris Agreement, we obtain a median estimate of a 26 cm SLR contribution by 2100, with a 95th percentile value of 81 cm. For a +5 °C temperature scenario more consistent with unchecked emissions growth, the corresponding values are 51 and 178 cm, respectively. Inclusion of thermal expansion and glacier contributions results in a global total SLR estimate that exceeds 2 m at the 95th percentile. Our findings support the use of scenarios of 21st century global total SLR exceeding 2 m for planning purposes. Beyond 2100, uncertainty and projected SLR increase rapidly. The 95th percentile ice sheet contribution by 2200, for the +5 °C scenario, is 7.5 m as a result of instabilities coming into play in both West and East Antarctica. Introducing process correlations and tail dependences increases estimates by roughly 15%. |
format |
Text |
author |
Bamber, Jonathan L. Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E. Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M. |
author_facet |
Bamber, Jonathan L. Oppenheimer, Michael Kopp, Robert E. Aspinall, Willy P. Cooke, Roger M. |
author_sort |
Bamber, Jonathan L. |
title |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_short |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_full |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_fullStr |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
title_sort |
ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6561295/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31110015 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 |
geographic |
East Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
East Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6561295/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31110015 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
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CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817205116 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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116 |
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23 |
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11195 |
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11200 |
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