Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery
Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly sy...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6458326 2023-05-15T15:27:11+02:00 Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A. Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom J. Ryberg, Marie Plambech Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joël M. Chr. Stenseth, Nils Möllmann, Christian 2019-03-13 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6458326/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30862289 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 en eng The Royal Society http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6458326/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30862289 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 © 2019 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. CC-BY Ecology Text 2019 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 2019-04-28T00:12:24Z Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change. Text atlantic cod Gadus morhua PubMed Central (PMC) Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286 1898 20182877 |
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English |
topic |
Ecology |
spellingShingle |
Ecology Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A. Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom J. Ryberg, Marie Plambech Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joël M. Chr. Stenseth, Nils Möllmann, Christian Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
topic_facet |
Ecology |
description |
Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change. |
format |
Text |
author |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A. Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom J. Ryberg, Marie Plambech Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joël M. Chr. Stenseth, Nils Möllmann, Christian |
author_facet |
Sguotti, Camilla Otto, Saskia A. Frelat, Romain Langbehn, Tom J. Ryberg, Marie Plambech Lindegren, Martin Durant, Joël M. Chr. Stenseth, Nils Möllmann, Christian |
author_sort |
Sguotti, Camilla |
title |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_short |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_full |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_fullStr |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_full_unstemmed |
Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery |
title_sort |
catastrophic dynamics limit atlantic cod recovery |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6458326/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30862289 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 |
genre |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
genre_facet |
atlantic cod Gadus morhua |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6458326/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30862289 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 |
op_rights |
© 2019 The Authors. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.2877 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
286 |
container_issue |
1898 |
container_start_page |
20182877 |
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1766357632471269376 |