Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region
Midlatitude storm tracks are preferred regions of intense activity of synoptic eddies shaping the day-to-day weather and several aspects of surface climate. Here statistical analyses of observationally-based atmospheric data and observed Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in the period 1979–2017 are...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6290774 2023-05-15T14:51:39+02:00 Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region Schlichtholz, Pawel 2018-12-12 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6290774/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30542140 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35900-8 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6290774/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30542140 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35900-8 © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2018 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35900-8 2018-12-23T01:24:03Z Midlatitude storm tracks are preferred regions of intense activity of synoptic eddies shaping the day-to-day weather and several aspects of surface climate. Here statistical analyses of observationally-based atmospheric data and observed Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in the period 1979–2017 are used to identify linkages of a dominant mode of interannual variability in wintertime upper-tropospheric storm track activity over Eurasia (STAEA mode) to the concurrent surface climate anomalies and pre-winter Arctic SIC variations. This mode explains an exceptionally large fraction (about 70% of the variance) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and of a dominant mode of Eurasian surface air temperature variations. As more than 50% of the variance of the STAEA mode and NAO is found to be accounted for by October SIC anomalies in the Barents/Kara Sea, it is concluded that wintertime Eurasian climate variability is to some extent predictable and that this predictability might have increased after an acceleration of the sea ice cover decline in the mid 2000s. These conclusions are supported by results from leave-1-yr-out cross-validated forecast experiments. Text Arctic Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Kara Sea Scientific Reports 8 1 |
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Article Schlichtholz, Pawel Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region |
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Midlatitude storm tracks are preferred regions of intense activity of synoptic eddies shaping the day-to-day weather and several aspects of surface climate. Here statistical analyses of observationally-based atmospheric data and observed Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in the period 1979–2017 are used to identify linkages of a dominant mode of interannual variability in wintertime upper-tropospheric storm track activity over Eurasia (STAEA mode) to the concurrent surface climate anomalies and pre-winter Arctic SIC variations. This mode explains an exceptionally large fraction (about 70% of the variance) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and of a dominant mode of Eurasian surface air temperature variations. As more than 50% of the variance of the STAEA mode and NAO is found to be accounted for by October SIC anomalies in the Barents/Kara Sea, it is concluded that wintertime Eurasian climate variability is to some extent predictable and that this predictability might have increased after an acceleration of the sea ice cover decline in the mid 2000s. These conclusions are supported by results from leave-1-yr-out cross-validated forecast experiments. |
format |
Text |
author |
Schlichtholz, Pawel |
author_facet |
Schlichtholz, Pawel |
author_sort |
Schlichtholz, Pawel |
title |
Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region |
title_short |
Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region |
title_full |
Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region |
title_fullStr |
Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate impacts and Arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the Atlantic-Eurasian region |
title_sort |
climate impacts and arctic precursors of changing storm track activity in the atlantic-eurasian region |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6290774/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30542140 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35900-8 |
geographic |
Arctic Kara Sea |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea |
genre |
Arctic Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Kara Sea North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6290774/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30542140 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35900-8 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35900-8 |
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Scientific Reports |
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