Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century
Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6289964 2023-05-15T14:38:12+02:00 Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska 2018-12-11 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6289964/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30538247 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6289964/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30538247 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2018 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 2018-12-16T01:36:00Z Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached. Text Arctic Climate change permafrost PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Nature Communications 9 1 |
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Article Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
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Article |
description |
Degradation of near-surface permafrost can pose a serious threat to the utilization of natural resources, and to the sustainable development of Arctic communities. Here we identify at unprecedentedly high spatial resolution infrastructure hazard areas in the Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost regions under projected climatic changes and quantify fundamental engineering structures at risk by 2050. We show that nearly four million people and 70% of current infrastructure in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost. Our results demonstrate that one-third of pan-Arctic infrastructure and 45% of the hydrocarbon extraction fields in the Russian Arctic are in regions where thaw-related ground instability can cause severe damage to the built environment. Alarmingly, these figures are not reduced substantially even if the climate change targets of the Paris Agreement are reached. |
format |
Text |
author |
Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska |
author_facet |
Hjort, Jan Karjalainen, Olli Aalto, Juha Westermann, Sebastian Romanovsky, Vladimir E. Nelson, Frederick E. Etzelmüller, Bernd Luoto, Miska |
author_sort |
Hjort, Jan |
title |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_short |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_full |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_fullStr |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
title_sort |
degrading permafrost puts arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6289964/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30538247 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6289964/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30538247 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07557-4 |
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Nature Communications |
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9 |
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1 |
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1766310320855318528 |