Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping
As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully couple...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6243199 2023-05-15T13:10:41+02:00 Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping Stephenson, Scott R. Wang, Wenshan Zender, Charles S. Wang, Hailong Davis, Steven J. Rasch, Philip J. 2018-09-28 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6243199/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969 en eng John Wiley and Sons Inc. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6243199/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969 ©2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. CC-BY-NC-ND Research Letters Text 2018 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969 2018-12-02T01:52:51Z As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st‐century trans‐Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans‐Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate‐driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth‐induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping‐free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open. Text albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Arctic Ocean Geophysical Research Letters 45 18 9898 9908 |
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Research Letters Stephenson, Scott R. Wang, Wenshan Zender, Charles S. Wang, Hailong Davis, Steven J. Rasch, Philip J. Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping |
topic_facet |
Research Letters |
description |
As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects. Here we investigate impacts of shipping emissions on Arctic climate using a fully coupled Earth system model (CESM 1.2.2) and a suite of newly developed projections of 21st‐century trans‐Arctic shipping emissions. We find that trans‐Arctic shipping will reduce Arctic warming by nearly 1 °C by 2099, due to sulfate‐driven liquid water cloud formation. Cloud fraction and liquid water path exhibit significant positive trends, cooling the lower atmosphere and surface. Positive feedbacks from sea ice growth‐induced albedo increases and decreased downwelling longwave radiation due to reduced water vapor content amplify the cooling relative to the shipping‐free Arctic. Our findings thus point to the complexity in Arctic climate responses to increased shipping traffic, justifying further study and policy considerations as trade routes open. |
format |
Text |
author |
Stephenson, Scott R. Wang, Wenshan Zender, Charles S. Wang, Hailong Davis, Steven J. Rasch, Philip J. |
author_facet |
Stephenson, Scott R. Wang, Wenshan Zender, Charles S. Wang, Hailong Davis, Steven J. Rasch, Philip J. |
author_sort |
Stephenson, Scott R. |
title |
Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping |
title_short |
Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping |
title_full |
Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping |
title_fullStr |
Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping |
title_sort |
climatic responses to future trans‐arctic shipping |
publisher |
John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6243199/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6243199/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969 |
op_rights |
©2018. The Authors. This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969 |
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Geophysical Research Letters |
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45 |
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18 |
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9898 |
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9908 |
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