The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6212430 2023-05-15T17:33:38+02:00 The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Lim, Young-Kwon Schubert, Siegfried D. Kovach, Robin Molod, Andrea M. Pawson, Steven 2018-11-01 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6212430/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30385868 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6212430/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30385868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5 © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2018 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5 2018-11-11T01:22:44Z The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above the 1901–2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 °C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation PubMed Central (PMC) Scientific Reports 8 1 |
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Article Lim, Young-Kwon Schubert, Siegfried D. Kovach, Robin Molod, Andrea M. Pawson, Steven The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season |
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The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active with six major hurricanes, the third most on record. The sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) over the eastern Main Development Region (EMDR), where many tropical cyclones (TCs) developed during active months of August/September, were ~0.96 °C above the 1901–2017 average (warmest on record): about ~0.42 °C from a long-term upward trend and the rest (~80%) attributed to the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The contribution to the SST from the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the EMDR was a weak warming, while that from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was negligible. Nevertheless, ENSO, the NAO, and the AMM all contributed to favorable wind shear conditions, while the AMM also produced enhanced atmospheric instability. Compared with the strong hurricane years of 2005/2010, the ocean heat content (OHC) during 2017 was larger across the tropics, with higher SST anomalies over the EMDR and Caribbean Sea. On the other hand, the dynamical/thermodynamical atmospheric conditions, while favorable for enhanced TC activity, were less prominent than in 2005/2010 across the tropics. The results suggest that unusually warm SST in the EMDR together with the long fetch of the resulting storms in the presence of record-breaking OHC may be key factors in driving the strong TC activity in 2017. |
format |
Text |
author |
Lim, Young-Kwon Schubert, Siegfried D. Kovach, Robin Molod, Andrea M. Pawson, Steven |
author_facet |
Lim, Young-Kwon Schubert, Siegfried D. Kovach, Robin Molod, Andrea M. Pawson, Steven |
author_sort |
Lim, Young-Kwon |
title |
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_short |
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_full |
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_fullStr |
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Roles of Climate Change and Climate Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season |
title_sort |
roles of climate change and climate variability in the 2017 atlantic hurricane season |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6212430/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30385868 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6212430/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30385868 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34343-5 |
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Scientific Reports |
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