Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall
Several cases of failure in the prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) are the major concern for long-lead prediction. We propose that this is due to the temporal evolution of association/linkage (inherent concept of temporal networks) with various factors and climatic indices across th...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:6050344 2023-05-15T17:33:22+02:00 Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall Dutta, Riya Maity, Rajib 2018-07-17 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6050344/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30018395 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6050344/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30018395 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z © The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2018 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z 2018-07-22T00:38:38Z Several cases of failure in the prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) are the major concern for long-lead prediction. We propose that this is due to the temporal evolution of association/linkage (inherent concept of temporal networks) with various factors and climatic indices across the globe, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) etc. Static models establish time-invariant (permanent) connections between such indices (predictors) and predictand (ISMR), whereas we hypothesize that such systems are temporally varying in nature. Considering hydroclimatic teleconnection with two major climate indices, ENSO and EQUINOO, we showed that the temporal persistence of the association is as low as three years. As an application of this concept, a statistical time-varying model is developed and the prediction performance is compared against its static counterpart (time-invariant model). The proposed approach is able to capture the ISMR anomalies and successfully predicts the severe drought years too. Specifically, 64% more accurate performance (in terms of RMSE) is achievable by the recommended time-varying approach as compared to existing time-invariant concepts. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation PubMed Central (PMC) Indian Pacific Scientific Reports 8 1 |
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Article Dutta, Riya Maity, Rajib Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
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Article |
description |
Several cases of failure in the prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) are the major concern for long-lead prediction. We propose that this is due to the temporal evolution of association/linkage (inherent concept of temporal networks) with various factors and climatic indices across the globe, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) etc. Static models establish time-invariant (permanent) connections between such indices (predictors) and predictand (ISMR), whereas we hypothesize that such systems are temporally varying in nature. Considering hydroclimatic teleconnection with two major climate indices, ENSO and EQUINOO, we showed that the temporal persistence of the association is as low as three years. As an application of this concept, a statistical time-varying model is developed and the prediction performance is compared against its static counterpart (time-invariant model). The proposed approach is able to capture the ISMR anomalies and successfully predicts the severe drought years too. Specifically, 64% more accurate performance (in terms of RMSE) is achievable by the recommended time-varying approach as compared to existing time-invariant concepts. |
format |
Text |
author |
Dutta, Riya Maity, Rajib |
author_facet |
Dutta, Riya Maity, Rajib |
author_sort |
Dutta, Riya |
title |
Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_short |
Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_full |
Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_fullStr |
Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall |
title_sort |
temporal evolution of hydroclimatic teleconnection and a time-varying model for long-lead prediction of indian summer monsoon rainfall |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6050344/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30018395 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z |
geographic |
Indian Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Indian Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6050344/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30018395 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2018 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-28972-z |
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