Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins?
Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5866916 2023-05-15T16:18:17+02:00 Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. 2018-03-22 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5866916/ https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 en eng PeerJ Inc. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5866916/ http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 ©2018 Hart et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. CC-BY Conservation Biology Text 2018 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 2018-04-01T00:23:57Z Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. Text fratercula PubMed Central (PMC) PeerJ 6 e4519 |
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Conservation Biology |
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Conservation Biology Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
topic_facet |
Conservation Biology |
description |
Tufted Puffin (Fratercula cirrhata) populations have experienced dramatic declines since the mid-19th century along the southern portion of the species range, leading citizen groups to petition the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) to list the species as endangered in the contiguous US. While there remains no consensus on the mechanisms driving these trends, population decreases in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem suggest climate-related factors, and in particular the indirect influence of sea-surface temperature on puffin prey. Here, we use three species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate projected shifts in habitat suitable for Tufted Puffin nesting for the year 2050 under two future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios. Ensemble model results indicate warming marine and terrestrial temperatures play a key role in the loss of suitable Tufted Puffin nesting conditions in the California Current under both business-as-usual (RCP 8.5) and moderated (RCP 4.5) carbon emission scenarios, and in particular, that mean summer sea-surface temperatures greater than 15 °C are likely to make habitat unsuitable for breeding. Under both emission scenarios, ensemble model results suggest that more than 92% of currently suitable nesting habitat in the California Current is likely to become unsuitable. Moreover, the models suggest a net loss of greater than 21% of suitable nesting sites throughout the entire North American range of the Tufted Puffin, regardless of emission-reduction strategies. These model results highlight continued Tufted Puffin declines—particularly among southern breeding colonies—and indicate a significant risk of near-term extirpation in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. |
format |
Text |
author |
Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. |
author_facet |
Hart, Christopher J. Kelly, Ryan P. Pearson, Scott F. |
author_sort |
Hart, Christopher J. |
title |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_short |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_full |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_fullStr |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_full_unstemmed |
Will the California Current lose its nesting Tufted Puffins? |
title_sort |
will the california current lose its nesting tufted puffins? |
publisher |
PeerJ Inc. |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5866916/ https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 |
genre |
fratercula |
genre_facet |
fratercula |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5866916/ http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 |
op_rights |
©2018 Hart et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.4519 |
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PeerJ |
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6 |
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e4519 |
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