Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills
We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5673877 2023-05-15T14:47:48+02:00 Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills Nordam, Tor Dunnebier, Dorien A. E. Beegle-Krause, CJ Reed, Mark Slagstad, Dag 2017-10-24 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673877/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29067639 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0961-3 en eng Springer Netherlands http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673877/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29067639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0961-3 © The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0961-3 2017-11-26T01:07:12Z We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009–2012 and 2050–2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC’s A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in “typical” outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure. Text Arctic Climate change PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Ambio 46 S3 442 452 |
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Article Nordam, Tor Dunnebier, Dorien A. E. Beegle-Krause, CJ Reed, Mark Slagstad, Dag Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009–2012 and 2050–2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC’s A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in “typical” outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure. |
format |
Text |
author |
Nordam, Tor Dunnebier, Dorien A. E. Beegle-Krause, CJ Reed, Mark Slagstad, Dag |
author_facet |
Nordam, Tor Dunnebier, Dorien A. E. Beegle-Krause, CJ Reed, Mark Slagstad, Dag |
author_sort |
Nordam, Tor |
title |
Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills |
title_short |
Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills |
title_full |
Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills |
title_fullStr |
Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills |
title_sort |
impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of arctic oil spills |
publisher |
Springer Netherlands |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673877/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29067639 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0961-3 |
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Arctic |
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Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673877/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29067639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0961-3 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0961-3 |
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