Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping
The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5673867 2023-05-15T14:34:48+02:00 Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad 2017-10-27 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673867/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29080010 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 en eng Springer Netherlands http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673867/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29080010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 © The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 2017-11-26T01:07:12Z The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Northeast Passage Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Arctic Ocean Ambio 46 S3 355 367 |
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Article Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
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Article |
description |
The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5—Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important. |
format |
Text |
author |
Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad |
author_facet |
Gascard, Jean-Claude Riemann-Campe, Kathrin Gerdes, Rüdiger Schyberg, Harald Randriamampianina, Roger Karcher, Michael Zhang, Jinlun Rafizadeh, Mehrad |
author_sort |
Gascard, Jean-Claude |
title |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_short |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_full |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_fullStr |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the Arctic: Implications for Arctic shipping |
title_sort |
future sea ice conditions and weather forecasts in the arctic: implications for arctic shipping |
publisher |
Springer Netherlands |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673867/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29080010 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Northeast Passage Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Climate change Northeast Passage Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5673867/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29080010 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2017 Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5 |
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