Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions
In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrome...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5589768 2023-05-15T13:15:00+02:00 Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions Polade, Suraj D. Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R. Dettinger, Michael D. Pierce, David W. 2017-09-07 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5589768/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28883636 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5589768/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28883636 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y 2017-09-17T01:22:34Z In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events. Text aleutian low PubMed Central (PMC) Scientific Reports 7 1 |
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Article Polade, Suraj D. Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R. Dettinger, Michael D. Pierce, David W. Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions |
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In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events. |
format |
Text |
author |
Polade, Suraj D. Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R. Dettinger, Michael D. Pierce, David W. |
author_facet |
Polade, Suraj D. Gershunov, Alexander Cayan, Daniel R. Dettinger, Michael D. Pierce, David W. |
author_sort |
Polade, Suraj D. |
title |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions |
title_short |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions |
title_full |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions |
title_fullStr |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions |
title_sort |
precipitation in a warming world: assessing projected hydro-climate changes in california and other mediterranean climate regions |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5589768/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28883636 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y |
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aleutian low |
genre_facet |
aleutian low |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5589768/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28883636 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-11285-y |
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Scientific Reports |
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