Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales
Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently reco...
Published in: | Nature Communications |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Nature Publishing Group
2017
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5529672/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28541288 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5529672 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5529672 2023-05-15T17:32:45+02:00 Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales Sheen, K. L. Smith, D. M. Dunstone, N. J. Eade, R. Rowell, D. P. Vellinga, M. 2017-05-25 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5529672/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28541288 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5529672/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28541288 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966 Copyright © 2017, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966 2017-08-06T00:25:58Z Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Nature Communications 8 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Article |
spellingShingle |
Article Sheen, K. L. Smith, D. M. Dunstone, N. J. Eade, R. Rowell, D. P. Vellinga, M. Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
Summer rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa exhibits one of the largest signals of climatic variability and with a population reliant on agricultural productivity, the Sahel is particularly vulnerable to major droughts such as occurred in the 1970s and 1980s. Rainfall levels have subsequently recovered, but future projections remain uncertain. Here we show that Sahel rainfall is skilfully predicted on inter-annual and multi-year (that is, >5 years) timescales and use these predictions to better understand the driving mechanisms. Moisture budget analysis indicates that on multi-year timescales, a warmer north Atlantic and Mediterranean enhance Sahel rainfall through increased meridional convergence of low-level, externally sourced moisture. In contrast, year-to-year rainfall levels are largely determined by the recycling rate of local moisture, regulated by planetary circulation patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Our findings aid improved understanding and forecasting of Sahel drought, paramount for successful adaptation strategies in a changing climate. |
format |
Text |
author |
Sheen, K. L. Smith, D. M. Dunstone, N. J. Eade, R. Rowell, D. P. Vellinga, M. |
author_facet |
Sheen, K. L. Smith, D. M. Dunstone, N. J. Eade, R. Rowell, D. P. Vellinga, M. |
author_sort |
Sheen, K. L. |
title |
Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales |
title_short |
Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales |
title_full |
Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales |
title_fullStr |
Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales |
title_full_unstemmed |
Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales |
title_sort |
skilful prediction of sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5529672/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28541288 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5529672/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28541288 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2017, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14966 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1766131015030407168 |