Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability
Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing deb...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5517648 2023-05-15T17:33:50+02:00 Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability Lenton, Timothy M. Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten 2017-07-19 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5517648/ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5517648/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x © The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x 2017-07-23T00:16:13Z Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957–2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic ‘teleconnections’ we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Pacific Scientific Reports 7 1 |
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Article Lenton, Timothy M. Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
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Article |
description |
Climate variability is critically important for nature and society, especially if it increases in amplitude and/or fluctuations become more persistent. However, the issues of whether climate variability is changing, and if so, whether this is due to anthropogenic forcing, are subjects of ongoing debate. Increases in the amplitude and persistence of temperature fluctuations have been detected in some regions, e.g. the North Pacific, but there is no agreed global signal. Here we systematically scan monthly surface temperature indices and spatial datasets to look for trends in variance and autocorrelation (persistence). We show that monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation increased over 1957–2002 across large parts of the North Pacific, North Atlantic, North America and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, (multi)decadal internal climate variability appears to influence trends in monthly temperature variability and autocorrelation. Historically-forced climate models do not reproduce the observed trends in temperature variance and autocorrelation, consistent with the models poorly capturing (multi)decadal internal climate variability. Based on a review of established spatial correlations and corresponding mechanistic ‘teleconnections’ we hypothesise that observed slowing down of sea surface temperature variability contributed to observed increases in land temperature variability and autocorrelation, which in turn contributed to persistent droughts in North America and the Mediterranean. |
format |
Text |
author |
Lenton, Timothy M. Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten |
author_facet |
Lenton, Timothy M. Dakos, Vasilis Bathiany, Sebastian Scheffer, Marten |
author_sort |
Lenton, Timothy M. |
title |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_short |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_full |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_fullStr |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_full_unstemmed |
Observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
title_sort |
observed trends in the magnitude and persistence of monthly temperature variability |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5517648/ https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x |
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Pacific |
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Pacific |
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North Atlantic |
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North Atlantic |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5517648/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2017 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-06382-x |
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Scientific Reports |
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