A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate
A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how a...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5428292 2023-05-15T17:33:32+02:00 A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate Wang, L. Ting, M. Kushner, P. J. 2017-03-21 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5428292/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28325893 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5428292/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28325893 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y © The Author(s) 2017 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y 2017-05-21T00:17:44Z A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America. Text North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Scientific Reports 7 1 |
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Article Wang, L. Ting, M. Kushner, P. J. A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate |
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Article |
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A key determinant of winter weather and climate in Europe and North America is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the dominant mode of atmospheric variability in the Atlantic domain. Skilful seasonal forecasting of the surface climate in both Europe and North America is reflected largely in how accurately models can predict the NAO. Most dynamical models, however, have limited skill in seasonal forecasts of the winter NAO. A new empirical model is proposed for the seasonal forecast of the winter NAO that exhibits higher skill than current dynamical models. The empirical model provides robust and skilful prediction of the December-January-February (DJF) mean NAO index using a multiple linear regression (MLR) technique with autumn conditions of sea-ice concentration, stratospheric circulation, and sea-surface temperature. The predictability is, for the most part, derived from the relatively long persistence of sea ice in the autumn. The lower stratospheric circulation and sea-surface temperature appear to play more indirect roles through a series of feedbacks among systems driving NAO evolution. This MLR model also provides skilful seasonal outlooks of winter surface temperature and precipitation over many regions of Eurasia and eastern North America. |
format |
Text |
author |
Wang, L. Ting, M. Kushner, P. J. |
author_facet |
Wang, L. Ting, M. Kushner, P. J. |
author_sort |
Wang, L. |
title |
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate |
title_short |
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate |
title_full |
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate |
title_fullStr |
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate |
title_sort |
robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter nao and surface climate |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5428292/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28325893 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5428292/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28325893 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y |
op_rights |
© The Author(s) 2017 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y |
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Scientific Reports |
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7 |
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1766132064064634880 |