On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline
This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration tre...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5394343 2023-05-15T15:38:00+02:00 On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline Li, Dawei Zhang, Rong Knutson, Thomas R. 2017-04-12 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5394343/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28401886 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14991 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5394343/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28401886 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14991 Copyright © 2017, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14991 2017-05-21T00:03:55Z This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979. Text Barents Sea Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Barents Sea Nature Communications 8 1 |
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Article Li, Dawei Zhang, Rong Knutson, Thomas R. On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline |
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Article |
description |
This study aims to understand the relative roles of external forcing versus internal climate variability in causing the observed Barents Sea winter sea ice extent (SIE) decline since 1979. We identify major discrepancies in the spatial patterns of winter Northern Hemisphere sea ice concentration trends over the satellite period between observations and CMIP5 multi-model mean externally forced response. The CMIP5 externally forced decline in Barents Sea winter SIE is much weaker than that observed. Across CMIP5 ensemble members, March Barents Sea SIE trends have little correlation with global mean surface air temperature trends, but are strongly anti-correlated with trends in Atlantic heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). Further comparison with control simulations from coupled climate models suggests that enhanced Atlantic heat transport across the BSO associated with regional internal variability may have played a leading role in the observed decline in winter Barents Sea SIE since 1979. |
format |
Text |
author |
Li, Dawei Zhang, Rong Knutson, Thomas R. |
author_facet |
Li, Dawei Zhang, Rong Knutson, Thomas R. |
author_sort |
Li, Dawei |
title |
On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline |
title_short |
On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline |
title_full |
On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline |
title_fullStr |
On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline |
title_full_unstemmed |
On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline |
title_sort |
on the discrepancy between observed and cmip5 multi-model simulated barents sea winter sea ice decline |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5394343/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28401886 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14991 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
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Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea Sea ice |
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Barents Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5394343/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28401886 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14991 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2017, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14991 |
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Nature Communications |
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8 |
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1 |
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1766368686027833344 |