Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea
In the context of global warming, the question of why Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has increased is one of the most fundamental unsolved mysteries. Although many mechanisms have been proposed, it is still unclear whether the increasing trend is anthropogenically originated or only caused by intern...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5259762 2023-05-15T13:52:17+02:00 Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea Yuan, Naiming Ding, Minghu Ludescher, Josef Bunde, Armin 2017-01-24 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5259762/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28117453 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41096 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5259762/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28117453 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep41096 Copyright © 2017, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Article Text 2017 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41096 2017-01-29T01:12:26Z In the context of global warming, the question of why Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has increased is one of the most fundamental unsolved mysteries. Although many mechanisms have been proposed, it is still unclear whether the increasing trend is anthropogenically originated or only caused by internal natural variability. In this study, we employ a new method where the underlying natural persistence in the Antarctic SIE can be correctly accounted for. We find that the Antarctic SIE is not simply short-term persistent as assumed in the standard significance analysis, but actually characterized by a combination of both short- and long-term persistence. By generating surrogate data with the same persistence properties, the SIE trends over Antarctica (as well as five sub-regions) are evaluated using Monte-Carlo simulations. It is found that the SIE trends over most sub-regions of Antarctica are not statistically significant. Only the SIE over Ross Sea has experienced a highly significant increasing trend (p = 0.008) which cannot be explained by natural variability. Influenced by the positive SIE trend over Ross Sea, the SIE over the entire Antarctica also increased over the past decades, but the trend is only at the edge of being significant (p = 0.034). Text Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ross Sea Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Ross Sea The Antarctic Scientific Reports 7 1 |
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Article Yuan, Naiming Ding, Minghu Ludescher, Josef Bunde, Armin Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea |
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In the context of global warming, the question of why Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) has increased is one of the most fundamental unsolved mysteries. Although many mechanisms have been proposed, it is still unclear whether the increasing trend is anthropogenically originated or only caused by internal natural variability. In this study, we employ a new method where the underlying natural persistence in the Antarctic SIE can be correctly accounted for. We find that the Antarctic SIE is not simply short-term persistent as assumed in the standard significance analysis, but actually characterized by a combination of both short- and long-term persistence. By generating surrogate data with the same persistence properties, the SIE trends over Antarctica (as well as five sub-regions) are evaluated using Monte-Carlo simulations. It is found that the SIE trends over most sub-regions of Antarctica are not statistically significant. Only the SIE over Ross Sea has experienced a highly significant increasing trend (p = 0.008) which cannot be explained by natural variability. Influenced by the positive SIE trend over Ross Sea, the SIE over the entire Antarctica also increased over the past decades, but the trend is only at the edge of being significant (p = 0.034). |
format |
Text |
author |
Yuan, Naiming Ding, Minghu Ludescher, Josef Bunde, Armin |
author_facet |
Yuan, Naiming Ding, Minghu Ludescher, Josef Bunde, Armin |
author_sort |
Yuan, Naiming |
title |
Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea |
title_short |
Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea |
title_full |
Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea |
title_fullStr |
Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increase of the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is highly significant only in the Ross Sea |
title_sort |
increase of the antarctic sea ice extent is highly significant only in the ross sea |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5259762/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28117453 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41096 |
geographic |
Antarctic Ross Sea The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Ross Sea The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ross Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ross Sea Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5259762/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28117453 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep41096 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2017, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/srep41096 |
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Scientific Reports |
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7 |
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1766256575227363328 |