Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands

The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with a...

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Published in:PLOS ONE
Main Authors: Upson, Rebecca, Williams, Jennifer J., Wilkinson, Tim P., Clubbe, Colin P., Maclean, Ilya M. D., McAdam, Jim H., Moat, Justin F.
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Public Library of Science 2016
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Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5120834/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27880846
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0167026
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spelling ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:5120834 2023-05-15T13:54:58+02:00 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands Upson, Rebecca Williams, Jennifer J. Wilkinson, Tim P. Clubbe, Colin P. Maclean, Ilya M. D. McAdam, Jim H. Moat, Justin F. 2016-11-23 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5120834/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27880846 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0167026 en eng Public Library of Science http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5120834/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27880846 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0167026 © 2016 Upson et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. CC-BY Research Article Text 2016 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0167026 2016-12-18T01:02:29Z The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland ... Text Antarc* Antarctica PubMed Central (PMC) PLOS ONE 11 11 e0167026
institution Open Polar
collection PubMed Central (PMC)
op_collection_id ftpubmed
language English
topic Research Article
spellingShingle Research Article
Upson, Rebecca
Williams, Jennifer J.
Wilkinson, Tim P.
Clubbe, Colin P.
Maclean, Ilya M. D.
McAdam, Jim H.
Moat, Justin F.
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands
topic_facet Research Article
description The Falkland Islands are predicted to experience up to 2.2°C rise in mean annual temperature over the coming century, greater than four times the rate over the last century. Our study investigates likely vulnerabilities of a suite of range-restricted species whose distributions are associated with archipelago-wide climatic variation. We used present day climate maps calibrated using local weather data, 2020–2080 climate predictions from regional climate models, non-climate variables derived from a digital terrain model and a comprehensive database on local plant distributions. Weighted mean ensemble models were produced to assess changes in range sizes and overlaps between the current range and protected areas network. Target species included three globally threatened Falkland endemics, Nassauvia falklandica, Nastanthus falklandicus and Plantago moorei; and two nationally threatened species, Acaena antarctica and Blechnum cordatum. Our research demonstrates that temperature increases predicted for the next century have the potential to significantly alter plant distributions across the Falklands. Upland species, in particular, were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. No known locations of target upland species or the southwestern species Plantago moorei are predicted to remain environmentally suitable in the face of predicted climate change. We identify potential refugia for these species and associated gaps in the current protected areas network. Species currently restricted to the milder western parts of the archipelago are broadly predicted to expand their ranges under warmer temperatures. Our results emphasise the importance of implementing suitable adaptation strategies to offset climate change impacts, particularly site management. There is an urgent need for long-term monitoring and artificial warming experiments; the results of this study will inform the selection of the most suitable locations for these. Results are also helping inform management recommendations for the Falkland ...
format Text
author Upson, Rebecca
Williams, Jennifer J.
Wilkinson, Tim P.
Clubbe, Colin P.
Maclean, Ilya M. D.
McAdam, Jim H.
Moat, Justin F.
author_facet Upson, Rebecca
Williams, Jennifer J.
Wilkinson, Tim P.
Clubbe, Colin P.
Maclean, Ilya M. D.
McAdam, Jim H.
Moat, Justin F.
author_sort Upson, Rebecca
title Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands
title_short Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands
title_full Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands
title_fullStr Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands
title_full_unstemmed Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Native Plant Distributions in the Falkland Islands
title_sort potential impacts of climate change on native plant distributions in the falkland islands
publisher Public Library of Science
publishDate 2016
url http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5120834/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27880846
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0167026
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genre_facet Antarc*
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op_relation http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5120834/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27880846
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0167026
op_rights © 2016 Upson et al
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
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