A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014
Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4967913 2023-05-15T14:32:10+02:00 A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. 2016-08-01 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4967913/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27477878 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4967913/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27477878 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 Copyright © 2016, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Article Text 2016 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 2016-08-14T00:11:35Z Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Arctic Ocean Scientific Reports 6 1 |
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Article Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
Rapid loss of sea ice is opening up the Arctic Ocean to shipping, a practice that is forecasted to increase rapidly by 2050 when many models predict that the Arctic Ocean will largely be free of ice toward the end of summer. These forecasts carry considerable uncertainty because Arctic shipping was previously considered too sparse to allow for adequate validation. Here, we provide quantitative evidence that the extent of Arctic shipping in the period 2011–2014 is already significant and that it is concentrated (i) in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and (ii) predominantly accessed via the Northeast and Northwest Passages. Thick ice along the forecasted direct trans-Arctic route was still present in 2014, preventing transit. Although Arctic shipping remains constrained by the extent of ice coverage, during every September, this coverage is at a minimum, allowing the highest levels of shipping activity. Access to Arctic resources, particularly fisheries, is the most important driver of Arctic shipping thus far. |
format |
Text |
author |
Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. |
author_facet |
Eguíluz, Victor M. Fernández-Gracia, Juan Irigoien, Xabier Duarte, Carlos M. |
author_sort |
Eguíluz, Victor M. |
title |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_short |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_full |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_fullStr |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_full_unstemmed |
A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
title_sort |
quantitative assessment of arctic shipping in 2010–2014 |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4967913/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27477878 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4967913/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27477878 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2016, The Author(s) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682 |
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Scientific Reports |
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6 |
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1 |
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1766305627545534464 |