Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• Main Authors: Trouet, Valerie, Harley, Grant L., Domínguez-Delmás, Marta
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: National Academy of Sciences 2016
• Subjects: Physical Sciences; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4812713/; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26951648; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1519566113

Twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) projections are crucial for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies, but they are subject to large uncertainties, particularly with respect to TC response to radiative forcing. We used a combination of tree-ring data and historical shipwreck data to show that TC activity in the Caribbean was distinctly suppressed during the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 CE), a period when solar irradiance was severely reduced. This solar fingerprint on decadal-scale Caribbean TC variability implies modulation by a combination of basin-wide climatic phenomena. Our findings highlight the need to enhance our understanding of the response of atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections.