Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities
Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4711888 2023-05-15T16:15:35+02:00 Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities Weatherdon, Lauren V. Ota, Yoshitaka Jones, Miranda C. Close, David A. Cheung, William W. L. 2016-01-13 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4711888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26761439 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285 en eng Public Library of Science http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4711888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26761439 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285 © 2016 Weatherdon et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited CC-BY Research Article Text 2016 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285 2016-01-31T01:14:30Z Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers’ knowledge. Text First Nations PubMed Central (PMC) British Columbia ENVELOPE(-125.003,-125.003,54.000,54.000) Canada PLOS ONE 11 1 e0145285 |
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Research Article Weatherdon, Lauren V. Ota, Yoshitaka Jones, Miranda C. Close, David A. Cheung, William W. L. Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities |
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Research Article |
description |
Studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distributions and relative abundances of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies assess impacts on large-scale commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts on small-scale subsistence and commercial fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in abundance are projected for most of the sampled species under both the lower (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 2.6) and higher (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios (-15.0% to -20.8%, respectively), with poleward range shifts occurring at a median rate of 10.3 to 18.0 km decade-1 by 2050 relative to 2000. While a cumulative decline in catch potential is projected coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between the change in relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the northern and central coasts of British Columbia likely to experience less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models. This study concludes by discussing corresponding management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change, and by highlighting the value of joint-management frameworks and traditional fisheries management approaches that could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies derived from local fishers’ knowledge. |
format |
Text |
author |
Weatherdon, Lauren V. Ota, Yoshitaka Jones, Miranda C. Close, David A. Cheung, William W. L. |
author_facet |
Weatherdon, Lauren V. Ota, Yoshitaka Jones, Miranda C. Close, David A. Cheung, William W. L. |
author_sort |
Weatherdon, Lauren V. |
title |
Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities |
title_short |
Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities |
title_full |
Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities |
title_fullStr |
Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities |
title_sort |
projected scenarios for coastal first nations’ fisheries catch potential under climate change: management challenges and opportunities |
publisher |
Public Library of Science |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4711888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26761439 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-125.003,-125.003,54.000,54.000) |
geographic |
British Columbia Canada |
geographic_facet |
British Columbia Canada |
genre |
First Nations |
genre_facet |
First Nations |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4711888/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26761439 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285 |
op_rights |
© 2016 Weatherdon et al http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0145285 |
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PLOS ONE |
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11 |
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e0145285 |
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