Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route
During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could m...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4653624 2023-05-15T14:37:44+02:00 Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Ono, Jun Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, Patti Yamaguchi, Hajime 2015-11-20 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4653624/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26585690 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4653624/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26585690 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ CC-BY Article Text 2015 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 2015-11-29T01:43:23Z During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. Text Arctic Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Arctic Ocean Scientific Reports 5 1 |
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Article Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Ono, Jun Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, Patti Yamaguchi, Hajime Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
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During ice-free periods, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route. The decline in Arctic sea-ice extent, however, could be associated with an increase in the frequency of the causes of severe weather phenomena, and high wind-driven waves and the advection of sea ice could make ship navigation along the NSR difficult. Accurate forecasts of weather and sea ice are desirable for safe navigation, but large uncertainties exist in current forecasts, partly owing to the sparse observational network over the Arctic Ocean. Here, we show that the incorporation of additional Arctic observations improves the initial analysis and enhances the skill of weather and sea-ice forecasts, the application of which has socioeconomic benefits. Comparison of 63-member ensemble atmospheric forecasts, using different initial data sets, revealed that additional Arctic radiosonde observations were useful for predicting a persistent strong wind event. The sea-ice forecast, initialised by the wind fields that included the effects of the observations, skilfully predicted rapid wind-driven sea-ice advection along the NSR. |
format |
Text |
author |
Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Ono, Jun Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, Patti Yamaguchi, Hajime |
author_facet |
Inoue, Jun Yamazaki, Akira Ono, Jun Dethloff, Klaus Maturilli, Marion Neuber, Roland Edwards, Patti Yamaguchi, Hajime |
author_sort |
Inoue, Jun |
title |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_short |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_full |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_fullStr |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_full_unstemmed |
Additional Arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the Northern Sea Route |
title_sort |
additional arctic observations improve weather and sea-ice forecasts for the northern sea route |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4653624/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26585690 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Northern Sea Route Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4653624/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26585690 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16868 |
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Scientific Reports |
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5 |
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1766309932907364352 |