Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation
Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4586807 2023-05-15T16:15:00+02:00 Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation Ackley, Sarah F. Liu, Fengchen Porco, Travis C. Pepperell, Caitlin S. 2015-09-24 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586807/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26421237 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1237 en eng PeerJ Inc. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586807/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26421237 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1237 © 2015 Ackley et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. CC-BY Mathematical Biology Text 2015 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1237 2015-10-04T00:29:21Z Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explore effects of famine prior to 1900 on both TB and population dynamics. Malnutrition is recognized as an individual-level risk factor for TB progression and mortality; its population-level effects on TB epidemics have not been explored previously. Second, we explore effects of heterogeneity in susceptibility to TB in two ways: modeling heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, and heterogeneity in risk of developing disease once infected. Our results indicate that models lacking famine-related changes in TB parameters or heterogeneity result in an implausibly poor fit to both the TB mortality time series and census data; the inclusion of these features allows for the characteristic decline and rise in population observed in First Nations during this time period and confers improved fits to TB mortality data. Text First Nations PubMed Central (PMC) PeerJ 3 e1237 |
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Mathematical Biology Ackley, Sarah F. Liu, Fengchen Porco, Travis C. Pepperell, Caitlin S. Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation |
topic_facet |
Mathematical Biology |
description |
Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) in Western Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explore effects of famine prior to 1900 on both TB and population dynamics. Malnutrition is recognized as an individual-level risk factor for TB progression and mortality; its population-level effects on TB epidemics have not been explored previously. Second, we explore effects of heterogeneity in susceptibility to TB in two ways: modeling heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection, and heterogeneity in risk of developing disease once infected. Our results indicate that models lacking famine-related changes in TB parameters or heterogeneity result in an implausibly poor fit to both the TB mortality time series and census data; the inclusion of these features allows for the characteristic decline and rise in population observed in First Nations during this time period and confers improved fits to TB mortality data. |
format |
Text |
author |
Ackley, Sarah F. Liu, Fengchen Porco, Travis C. Pepperell, Caitlin S. |
author_facet |
Ackley, Sarah F. Liu, Fengchen Porco, Travis C. Pepperell, Caitlin S. |
author_sort |
Ackley, Sarah F. |
title |
Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation |
title_short |
Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation |
title_full |
Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation |
title_fullStr |
Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation |
title_sort |
modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among canadian first nations: effects of malnutrition and genetic variation |
publisher |
PeerJ Inc. |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586807/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26421237 https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1237 |
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First Nations |
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First Nations |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4586807/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26421237 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1237 |
op_rights |
© 2015 Ackley et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited. |
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CC-BY |
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https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1237 |
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e1237 |
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