Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting
September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related t...
Published in: | Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
The Royal Society Publishing
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4455712/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26032315 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4455712 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:4455712 2023-05-15T13:11:11+02:00 Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne 2015-07-13 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4455712/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26032315 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 en eng The Royal Society Publishing http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4455712/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26032315 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. Articles Text 2015 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 2016-07-17T00:00:45Z September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. Text albedo Arctic Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 373 2045 20140159 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Articles |
spellingShingle |
Articles Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
topic_facet |
Articles |
description |
September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. |
format |
Text |
author |
Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne |
author_facet |
Serreze, Mark C. Stroeve, Julienne |
author_sort |
Serreze, Mark C. |
title |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_short |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_full |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_fullStr |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
title_sort |
arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting |
publisher |
The Royal Society Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4455712/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26032315 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4455712/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26032315 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 |
op_rights |
© 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0159 |
container_title |
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences |
container_volume |
373 |
container_issue |
2045 |
container_start_page |
20140159 |
_version_ |
1766246275004497920 |