Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia

• Published in: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
• Main Authors: Denniston, Rhawn F., Villarini, Gabriele, Gonzales, Angelique N., Wyrwoll, Karl-Heinz, Polyak, Victor J., Ummenhofer, Caroline C., Lachniet, Matthew S., Wanamaker, Alan D., Humphreys, William F., Woods, David, Cugley, John
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: National Academy of Sciences 2015
• Subjects: Physical Sciences; North Atlantic
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4403187/; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25825740; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1422270112

Variations in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are poorly known prior to the twentieth century, complicating our ability to understand how cyclogenesis responds to different climate states. We used stalagmites to develop a near-annual record of cave flooding from the central Australian tropics, where TCs are responsible for the majority of extreme rainfall events. Our 2,200-year time series reveals shifts in the mean number of storms through time, similar to TC variability from the North Atlantic. This finding is consistent with modern relationships between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cyclogenesis, as well as with the reconstructed state of ENSO over the past two millennia, suggesting that changes between La Niña- and El Niño-dominated periods drove multicentennial shifts in TC activity in both basins.