Marine ice regulates the future stability of a large Antarctic ice shelf

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Kulessa, Bernd, Jansen, Daniela, Luckman, Adrian J., King, Edward C., Sammonds, Peter R.
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Pub. Group 2014
• Subjects: Article; Antarctic; Antarctic Peninsula; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Antarctica; Ice Shelf; Ice Shelves
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3997805; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24751641; https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4707

The collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula in 1995 and 2002 confirm the impact of southward-propagating climate warming in this region. Recent mass and dynamic changes of Larsen B’s southern neighbour Larsen C, the fourth largest ice shelf in Antarctica, may herald a similar instability. Here, using a validated ice-shelf model run in diagnostic mode, constrained by satellite and in situ geophysical data, we identify the nature of this potential instability. We demonstrate that the present-day spatial distribution and orientation of the principal stresses within Larsen C ice shelf are akin to those within pre-collapse Larsen B. When Larsen B’s stabilizing frontal portion was lost in 1995, the unstable remaining shelf accelerated, crumbled and ultimately collapsed. We hypothesize that Larsen C ice shelf may suffer a similar fate if it were not stabilized by warm and mechanically soft marine ice, entrained within narrow suture zones.