Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States
More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:384707 2023-05-15T17:28:05+02:00 Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States McCabe, Gregory J. Palecki, Michael A. Betancourt, Julio L. 2004-03-23 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC384707 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15016919 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC384707 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15016919 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101 Copyright © 2004, The National Academy of Sciences Biological Sciences Text 2004 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101 2013-08-29T22:27:41Z More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999–2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Pacific Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 101 12 4136 4141 |
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English |
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Biological Sciences |
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Biological Sciences McCabe, Gregory J. Palecki, Michael A. Betancourt, Julio L. Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States |
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Biological Sciences |
description |
More than half (52%) of the spatial and temporal variance in multidecadal drought frequency over the conterminous United States is attributable to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). An additional 22% of the variance in drought frequency is related to a complex spatial pattern of positive and negative trends in drought occurrence possibly related to increasing Northern Hemisphere temperatures or some other unidirectional climate trend. Recent droughts with broad impacts over the conterminous U.S. (1996, 1999–2002) were associated with North Atlantic warming (positive AMO) and northeastern and tropical Pacific cooling (negative PDO). Much of the long-term predictability of drought frequency may reside in the multidecadal behavior of the North Atlantic Ocean. Should the current positive AMO (warm North Atlantic) conditions persist into the upcoming decade, we suggest two possible drought scenarios that resemble the continental-scale patterns of the 1930s (positive PDO) and 1950s (negative PDO) drought. |
format |
Text |
author |
McCabe, Gregory J. Palecki, Michael A. Betancourt, Julio L. |
author_facet |
McCabe, Gregory J. Palecki, Michael A. Betancourt, Julio L. |
author_sort |
McCabe, Gregory J. |
title |
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States |
title_short |
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States |
title_full |
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States |
title_fullStr |
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States |
title_sort |
pacific and atlantic ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the united states |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2004 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC384707 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15016919 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC384707 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15016919 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2004, The National Academy of Sciences |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0306738101 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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101 |
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12 |
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4136 |
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4141 |
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1766120559354052608 |