A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010
The direct and interactive effects of climate change on host species and infectious disease dynamics are likely to initially manifest at latitudinal extremes. As such, Alaska represents a region in the United States for introspection on climate change and disease. Rabies is enzootic among arctic fox...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3701727 2023-05-15T14:49:20+02:00 A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010 Kim, Bryan I. Blanton, Jesse D. Gilbert, Amy Castrodale, Louisa Hueffer, Karsten Slate, Dennis Rupprecht, Charles E. 2013-03-04 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3701727 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23452510 https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.12044 en eng http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23452510 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/zph.12044 Article Text 2013 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.12044 2015-02-08T00:51:27Z The direct and interactive effects of climate change on host species and infectious disease dynamics are likely to initially manifest at latitudinal extremes. As such, Alaska represents a region in the United States for introspection on climate change and disease. Rabies is enzootic among arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) throughout the northern polar region. In Alaska, arctic and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are reservoirs for rabies, with most domestic animal and wildlife cases reported from northern and western coastal Alaska. Based on passive surveillance, a pronounced seasonal trend in rabid foxes occurs in Alaska, with a peak in winter and spring. This study describes climatic factors that may be associated with reported cyclic rabies occurrence. Based upon probabilistic modeling, a stronger seasonal effect in reported fox rabies cases appears at higher latitudes in Alaska, and rabies in arctic foxes appear disproportionately affected by climatic factors in comparison to red foxes. As temperatures continue a warming trend a decrease in reported rabid arctic foxes may be expected. The overall epidemiology of rabies in Alaska is likely to shift to increased viral transmission among red foxes as the primary reservoir in the region. Information on fox and lemming demographics, in addition to enhanced rabies surveillance among foxes at finer geographic scales, will be critical to develop more comprehensive models for rabies virus transmission in the region. Text Arctic Climate change Vulpes lagopus Alaska PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Zoonoses and Public Health 61 1 72 80 |
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Article Kim, Bryan I. Blanton, Jesse D. Gilbert, Amy Castrodale, Louisa Hueffer, Karsten Slate, Dennis Rupprecht, Charles E. A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010 |
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description |
The direct and interactive effects of climate change on host species and infectious disease dynamics are likely to initially manifest at latitudinal extremes. As such, Alaska represents a region in the United States for introspection on climate change and disease. Rabies is enzootic among arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) throughout the northern polar region. In Alaska, arctic and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) are reservoirs for rabies, with most domestic animal and wildlife cases reported from northern and western coastal Alaska. Based on passive surveillance, a pronounced seasonal trend in rabid foxes occurs in Alaska, with a peak in winter and spring. This study describes climatic factors that may be associated with reported cyclic rabies occurrence. Based upon probabilistic modeling, a stronger seasonal effect in reported fox rabies cases appears at higher latitudes in Alaska, and rabies in arctic foxes appear disproportionately affected by climatic factors in comparison to red foxes. As temperatures continue a warming trend a decrease in reported rabid arctic foxes may be expected. The overall epidemiology of rabies in Alaska is likely to shift to increased viral transmission among red foxes as the primary reservoir in the region. Information on fox and lemming demographics, in addition to enhanced rabies surveillance among foxes at finer geographic scales, will be critical to develop more comprehensive models for rabies virus transmission in the region. |
format |
Text |
author |
Kim, Bryan I. Blanton, Jesse D. Gilbert, Amy Castrodale, Louisa Hueffer, Karsten Slate, Dennis Rupprecht, Charles E. |
author_facet |
Kim, Bryan I. Blanton, Jesse D. Gilbert, Amy Castrodale, Louisa Hueffer, Karsten Slate, Dennis Rupprecht, Charles E. |
author_sort |
Kim, Bryan I. |
title |
A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010 |
title_short |
A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010 |
title_full |
A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010 |
title_fullStr |
A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010 |
title_full_unstemmed |
A conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in Alaska, 1980–2010 |
title_sort |
conceptual model for the impact of climate change on fox rabies in alaska, 1980–2010 |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3701727 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23452510 https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.12044 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Vulpes lagopus Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Vulpes lagopus Alaska |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23452510 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/zph.12044 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.12044 |
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Zoonoses and Public Health |
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61 |
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1 |
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72 |
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80 |
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1766320388072013824 |