Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques
A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to e...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3586610 2023-05-15T14:03:02+02:00 Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques Hay, Carling C. Morrow, Eric Kopp, Robert E. Mitrovica, Jerry X. 2013-02-26 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3586610 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22543163 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1117683109 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3586610 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22543163 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1117683109 Fostering Advances in Interdisciplinary Climate Science Sackler Colloquium Text 2013 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1117683109 2013-09-04T20:34:23Z A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gaps while also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ∼0.3 and ∼0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that our modified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world. Text Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 Supplement_1 3692 3699 |
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PubMed Central (PMC) |
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English |
topic |
Fostering Advances in Interdisciplinary Climate Science Sackler Colloquium |
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Fostering Advances in Interdisciplinary Climate Science Sackler Colloquium Hay, Carling C. Morrow, Eric Kopp, Robert E. Mitrovica, Jerry X. Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques |
topic_facet |
Fostering Advances in Interdisciplinary Climate Science Sackler Colloquium |
description |
A rapidly melting ice sheet produces a distinctive geometry, or fingerprint, of sea level (SL) change. Thus, a network of SL observations may, in principle, be used to infer sources of meltwater flux. We outline a formalism, based on a modified Kalman smoother, for using tide gauge observations to estimate the individual sources of global SL change. We also report on a series of detection experiments based on synthetic SL data that explore the feasibility of extracting source information from SL records. The Kalman smoother technique iteratively calculates the maximum-likelihood estimate of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) melt at each time step, and it accommodates data gaps while also permitting the estimation of nonlinear trends. Our synthetic tests indicate that when all tide gauge records are used in the analysis, it should be possible to estimate GIS and WAIS melt rates greater than ∼0.3 and ∼0.4 mm of equivalent eustatic sea level rise per year, respectively. We have also implemented a multimodel Kalman filter that allows us to account rigorously for additional contributions to SL changes and their associated uncertainty. The multimodel filter uses 72 glacial isostatic adjustment models and 3 ocean dynamic models to estimate the most likely models for these processes given the synthetic observations. We conclude that our modified Kalman smoother procedure provides a powerful method for inferring melt rates in a warming world. |
format |
Text |
author |
Hay, Carling C. Morrow, Eric Kopp, Robert E. Mitrovica, Jerry X. |
author_facet |
Hay, Carling C. Morrow, Eric Kopp, Robert E. Mitrovica, Jerry X. |
author_sort |
Hay, Carling C. |
title |
Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques |
title_short |
Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques |
title_full |
Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques |
title_fullStr |
Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques |
title_sort |
estimating the sources of global sea level rise with data assimilation techniques |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3586610 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22543163 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1117683109 |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland West Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3586610 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22543163 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1117683109 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1117683109 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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110 |
container_issue |
Supplement_1 |
container_start_page |
3692 |
op_container_end_page |
3699 |
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1766273515517902848 |