A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate...

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Published in:AMBIO
Main Authors: Dippner, Joachim W., Kornilovs, Georgs, Junker, Karin
Format: Text
Language:English
Published: Springer Netherlands 2012
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3472018
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22430308
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y
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spelling ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3472018 2023-05-15T15:06:16+02:00 A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index Dippner, Joachim W. Kornilovs, Georgs Junker, Karin 2012-03-20 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3472018 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22430308 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y en eng Springer Netherlands http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3472018 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22430308 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y © Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2012 Report Text 2012 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y 2013-11-03T01:27:01Z Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series. Text Arctic North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Zooplankton PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic AMBIO 41 7 699 708
institution Open Polar
collection PubMed Central (PMC)
op_collection_id ftpubmed
language English
topic Report
spellingShingle Report
Dippner, Joachim W.
Kornilovs, Georgs
Junker, Karin
A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index
topic_facet Report
description Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.
format Text
author Dippner, Joachim W.
Kornilovs, Georgs
Junker, Karin
author_facet Dippner, Joachim W.
Kornilovs, Georgs
Junker, Karin
author_sort Dippner, Joachim W.
title A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index
title_short A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index
title_full A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index
title_fullStr A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index
title_full_unstemmed A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index
title_sort multivariate baltic sea environmental index
publisher Springer Netherlands
publishDate 2012
url http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3472018
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22430308
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y
geographic Arctic
geographic_facet Arctic
genre Arctic
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Sea ice
Zooplankton
genre_facet Arctic
North Atlantic
North Atlantic oscillation
Sea ice
Zooplankton
op_relation http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3472018
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22430308
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y
op_rights © Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2012
op_doi https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-012-0260-y
container_title AMBIO
container_volume 41
container_issue 7
container_start_page 699
op_container_end_page 708
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