Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season
A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentration...
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Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3437905 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22847408 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109 |
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3437905 2023-05-15T15:11:22+02:00 Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season Wallace, John M. Fu, Qiang Smoliak, Brian V. Lin, Pu Johanson, Celeste M. 2012-09-04 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3437905 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22847408 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3437905 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22847408 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109 Physical Sciences Text 2012 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109 2013-09-04T12:39:13Z A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. Text Arctic Climate change PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109 36 14337 14342 |
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English |
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Physical Sciences |
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Physical Sciences Wallace, John M. Fu, Qiang Smoliak, Brian V. Lin, Pu Johanson, Celeste M. Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season |
topic_facet |
Physical Sciences |
description |
A suite of the historical simulations run with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models forced by greenhouse gases, aerosols, stratospheric ozone depletion, and volcanic eruptions and a second suite of simulations forced by increasing CO2 concentrations alone are compared with observations for the reference interval 1965–2000. Surface air temperature trends are disaggregated by boreal cold (November-April) versus warm (May-October) seasons and by high latitude northern (N: 40°–90 °N) versus southern (S: 60 °S–40 °N) domains. A dynamical adjustment is applied to remove the component of the cold-season surface air temperature trends (over land areas poleward of 40 °N) that are attributable to changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The model simulations do not simulate the full extent of the wintertime warming over the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere continents during the later 20th century, much of which was dynamically induced. Expressed as fractions of the concurrent trend in global-mean sea surface temperature, the relative magnitude of the dynamically induced wintertime warming over domain N in the observations, the simulations with multiple forcings, and the runs forced by the buildup of greenhouse gases only is 7∶2∶1, and roughly comparable to the relative magnitude of the concurrent sea-level pressure trends. These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. |
format |
Text |
author |
Wallace, John M. Fu, Qiang Smoliak, Brian V. Lin, Pu Johanson, Celeste M. |
author_facet |
Wallace, John M. Fu, Qiang Smoliak, Brian V. Lin, Pu Johanson, Celeste M. |
author_sort |
Wallace, John M. |
title |
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season |
title_short |
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season |
title_full |
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season |
title_fullStr |
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season |
title_full_unstemmed |
Simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere continents during the cold season |
title_sort |
simulated versus observed patterns of warming over the extratropical northern hemisphere continents during the cold season |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2012 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3437905 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22847408 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3437905 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22847408 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1204875109 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
109 |
container_issue |
36 |
container_start_page |
14337 |
op_container_end_page |
14342 |
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1766342230368321536 |