Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts
Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm even...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3203801 2023-05-15T17:33:48+02:00 Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. 2011-10-25 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3203801 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22006300 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3203801 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22006300 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 Freely available online through the PNAS open access option. Physical Sciences Text 2011 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 2013-09-03T21:48:58Z Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108 43 17626 17630 |
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Physical Sciences Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
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Physical Sciences |
description |
Tropical cyclones have massive economic, social, and ecological impacts, and models of their occurrence influence many planning activities from setting insurance premiums to conservation planning. Most impact models allow for geographically varying cyclone rates but assume that individual storm events occur randomly with constant rate in time. This study analyzes the statistical properties of Atlantic tropical cyclones and shows that local cyclone counts vary in time, with periods of elevated activity followed by relative quiescence. Such temporal clustering is particularly strong in the Caribbean Sea, along the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Costa Rica, Jamaica, the southwest of Haiti, and in the main hurricane development region in the North Atlantic between Africa and the Caribbean. Failing to recognize this natural nonstationarity in cyclone rates can give inaccurate impact predictions. We demonstrate this by exploring cyclone impacts on coral reefs. For a given cyclone rate, we find that clustered events have a less detrimental impact than independent random events. Predictions using a standard random hurricane model were overly pessimistic, predicting reef degradation more than a decade earlier than that expected under clustered disturbance. The presence of clustering allows coral reefs more time to recover to healthier states, but the impacts of clustering will vary from one ecosystem to another. |
format |
Text |
author |
Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. |
author_facet |
Mumby, Peter J. Vitolo, Renato Stephenson, David B. |
author_sort |
Mumby, Peter J. |
title |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_short |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_full |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_fullStr |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
title_sort |
temporal clustering of tropical cyclones and its ecosystem impacts |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3203801 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22006300 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 |
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North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3203801 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22006300 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 |
op_rights |
Freely available online through the PNAS open access option. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100436108 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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108 |
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43 |
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17626 |
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17630 |
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1766132418104786944 |