Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size
Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:3105343 2023-05-15T16:35:26+02:00 Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. 2011-02-08 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3105343 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21304515 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 en eng Nature Publishing Group http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3105343 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21304515 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 Copyright © 2011, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ CC-BY-NC-ND Article Text 2011 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 2013-09-03T15:21:12Z Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. Text Hudson Bay Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Hudson Hudson Bay Nature Communications 2 1 |
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Article Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
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Article |
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Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. |
format |
Text |
author |
Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. |
author_facet |
Molnár, Péter K. Derocher, Andrew E. Klanjscek, Tin Lewis, Mark A. |
author_sort |
Molnár, Péter K. |
title |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_short |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_full |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_fullStr |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_full_unstemmed |
Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
title_sort |
predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3105343 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21304515 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 |
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Hudson Hudson Bay |
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Hudson Hudson Bay |
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Hudson Bay Sea ice |
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Hudson Bay Sea ice |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3105343 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21304515 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2011, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/ |
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CC-BY-NC-ND |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms1183 |
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Nature Communications |
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2 |
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