Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annu...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2629232 2023-05-15T13:10:32+02:00 Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. 2009-01-06 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2629232 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19109440 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2629232 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19109440 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 © 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA Physical Sciences Text 2009 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 2013-09-02T10:08:10Z In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. Text albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Arctic Arctic Ocean Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 1 28 32 |
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Physical Sciences |
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Physical Sciences Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
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Physical Sciences |
description |
In light of the rapid recent retreat of Arctic sea ice, a number of studies have discussed the possibility of a critical threshold (or “tipping point”) beyond which the ice–albedo feedback causes the ice cover to melt away in an irreversible process. The focus has typically been centered on the annual minimum (September) ice cover, which is often seen as particularly susceptible to destabilization by the ice–albedo feedback. Here, we examine the central physical processes associated with the transition from ice-covered to ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions. We show that although the ice–albedo feedback promotes the existence of multiple ice-cover states, the stabilizing thermodynamic effects of sea ice mitigate this when the Arctic Ocean is ice covered during a sufficiently large fraction of the year. These results suggest that critical threshold behavior is unlikely during the approach from current perennial sea-ice conditions to seasonally ice-free conditions. In a further warmed climate, however, we find that a critical threshold associated with the sudden loss of the remaining wintertime-only sea ice cover may be likely. |
format |
Text |
author |
Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. |
author_facet |
Eisenman, I. Wettlaufer, J. S. |
author_sort |
Eisenman, I. |
title |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_short |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_full |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of Arctic sea ice |
title_sort |
nonlinear threshold behavior during the loss of arctic sea ice |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2629232 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19109440 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
genre_facet |
albedo Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2629232 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19109440 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 |
op_rights |
© 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0806887106 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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106 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
28 |
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32 |
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1766232889931857920 |