Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands
An increasing number of avian flu cases in humans, arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, in several regions of the world have prompted the urgency to develop pandemic preparedness plans worldwide. Leading recommendations in these plans include basic public health control measures for m...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:2373400 2023-05-15T15:34:34+02:00 Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands Nuño, M Chowell, G Gumel, A.B 2006-12-13 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2373400 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17251132 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0186 en eng The Royal Society http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2373400 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17251132 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0186 © 2006 The Royal Society Research Article Text 2006 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0186 2013-09-01T21:48:58Z An increasing number of avian flu cases in humans, arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, in several regions of the world have prompted the urgency to develop pandemic preparedness plans worldwide. Leading recommendations in these plans include basic public health control measures for minimizing transmission in hospitals and communities, the use of antiviral drugs and vaccination. This paper presents a mathematical model for the evaluation of the pandemic flu preparedness plans of the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands. The model is used to assess single and combined interventions. Using data from the US, we show that hospital and community transmission control measures alone can be highly effective in reducing the impact of a potential flu pandemic. We further show that while the use of antivirals alone could lead to very significant reductions in the burden of a pandemic, the combination of transmission control measures, antivirals and vaccine gives the most ‘optimal’ result. However, implementing such an optimal strategy at the onset of a pandemic may not be realistic. Thus, it is important to consider other plausible alternatives. An optimal preparedness plan is largely dependent on the availability of resources; hence, it is country-specific. We show that countries with limited antiviral stockpiles should emphasize their use therapeutically (rather than prophylactically). However, countries with large antiviral stockpiles can achieve greater reductions in disease burden by implementing them both prophylactically and therapeutically. This study promotes alternative strategies that may be feasible and attainable for the US, UK and the Netherlands. It emphasizes the role of hospital and community transmission control measures in addition to the timely administration of antiviral treatment in reducing the burden of a flu pandemic. The latter is consistent with the preparedness plans of the UK and the Netherlands. Our results indicate that for low efficacy and coverage ... Text Avian flu PubMed Central (PMC) Journal of The Royal Society Interface 4 14 505 521 |
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Research Article Nuño, M Chowell, G Gumel, A.B Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands |
topic_facet |
Research Article |
description |
An increasing number of avian flu cases in humans, arising primarily from direct contact with poultry, in several regions of the world have prompted the urgency to develop pandemic preparedness plans worldwide. Leading recommendations in these plans include basic public health control measures for minimizing transmission in hospitals and communities, the use of antiviral drugs and vaccination. This paper presents a mathematical model for the evaluation of the pandemic flu preparedness plans of the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands. The model is used to assess single and combined interventions. Using data from the US, we show that hospital and community transmission control measures alone can be highly effective in reducing the impact of a potential flu pandemic. We further show that while the use of antivirals alone could lead to very significant reductions in the burden of a pandemic, the combination of transmission control measures, antivirals and vaccine gives the most ‘optimal’ result. However, implementing such an optimal strategy at the onset of a pandemic may not be realistic. Thus, it is important to consider other plausible alternatives. An optimal preparedness plan is largely dependent on the availability of resources; hence, it is country-specific. We show that countries with limited antiviral stockpiles should emphasize their use therapeutically (rather than prophylactically). However, countries with large antiviral stockpiles can achieve greater reductions in disease burden by implementing them both prophylactically and therapeutically. This study promotes alternative strategies that may be feasible and attainable for the US, UK and the Netherlands. It emphasizes the role of hospital and community transmission control measures in addition to the timely administration of antiviral treatment in reducing the burden of a flu pandemic. The latter is consistent with the preparedness plans of the UK and the Netherlands. Our results indicate that for low efficacy and coverage ... |
format |
Text |
author |
Nuño, M Chowell, G Gumel, A.B |
author_facet |
Nuño, M Chowell, G Gumel, A.B |
author_sort |
Nuño, M |
title |
Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands |
title_short |
Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands |
title_full |
Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands |
title_fullStr |
Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands |
title_sort |
assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: scenarios for the us, uk and the netherlands |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2373400 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17251132 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0186 |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2373400 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17251132 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0186 |
op_rights |
© 2006 The Royal Society |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2006.0186 |
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Journal of The Royal Society Interface |
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4 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
505 |
op_container_end_page |
521 |
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1766364915238436864 |