Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence
Ever since Elton, the 3–5 year density cycles in lemmings (and other microtines) in Fennoscandia have troubled scientists. Explanations have involved intrinsic regulation and trophic interactions. We have analysed yearly changes in fall abundances for lemmings over 25 years from two local mountain s...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:1688219 2023-05-15T16:11:51+02:00 Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence Framstad, E. Stenseth, N. C. Bjørnstad, O. N. Falck, W. 1997-01-22 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1688219 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1997.0005 en eng http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1688219 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1997.0005 Article Text 1997 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1997.0005 2013-08-31T12:25:48Z Ever since Elton, the 3–5 year density cycles in lemmings (and other microtines) in Fennoscandia have troubled scientists. Explanations have involved intrinsic regulation and trophic interactions. We have analysed yearly changes in fall abundances for lemmings over 25 years from two local mountain sites in South Norway. These time series appear to have an underlying nonlinear structure of order two. Fitting a piece-wise linear threshold model of maximum order two, the most parsimonious model was, however, of first order for both series. The resulting dynamics from this model is a limit cycle. Reformulating the model in terms of abundances yields a model which combines (delayed) density-dependent effects and the influence of the cyclic phase. The delayed density-dependence of one part of the model is consistent with an effect of specialist predators during the peak and crash phases of the cycle, although other trophic interactions cannot be excluded. Text Fennoscandia PubMed Central (PMC) Norway Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 264 1378 31 38 |
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English |
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Article Framstad, E. Stenseth, N. C. Bjørnstad, O. N. Falck, W. Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence |
topic_facet |
Article |
description |
Ever since Elton, the 3–5 year density cycles in lemmings (and other microtines) in Fennoscandia have troubled scientists. Explanations have involved intrinsic regulation and trophic interactions. We have analysed yearly changes in fall abundances for lemmings over 25 years from two local mountain sites in South Norway. These time series appear to have an underlying nonlinear structure of order two. Fitting a piece-wise linear threshold model of maximum order two, the most parsimonious model was, however, of first order for both series. The resulting dynamics from this model is a limit cycle. Reformulating the model in terms of abundances yields a model which combines (delayed) density-dependent effects and the influence of the cyclic phase. The delayed density-dependence of one part of the model is consistent with an effect of specialist predators during the peak and crash phases of the cycle, although other trophic interactions cannot be excluded. |
format |
Text |
author |
Framstad, E. Stenseth, N. C. Bjørnstad, O. N. Falck, W. |
author_facet |
Framstad, E. Stenseth, N. C. Bjørnstad, O. N. Falck, W. |
author_sort |
Framstad, E. |
title |
Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence |
title_short |
Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence |
title_full |
Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence |
title_fullStr |
Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence |
title_full_unstemmed |
Limit cycles in Norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence |
title_sort |
limit cycles in norwegian lemmings: tensions between phase-dependence and density-dependence |
publishDate |
1997 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1688219 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1997.0005 |
geographic |
Norway |
geographic_facet |
Norway |
genre |
Fennoscandia |
genre_facet |
Fennoscandia |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1688219 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1997.0005 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1997.0005 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
264 |
container_issue |
1378 |
container_start_page |
31 |
op_container_end_page |
38 |
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1765997052514271232 |