Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans
Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochast...
Published in: | Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
The Royal Society
2006
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634894 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959637 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:1634894 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:1634894 2023-05-15T15:34:23+02:00 Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F Smith, David L Flahault, Antoine 2006-07-11 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634894 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959637 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 en eng The Royal Society http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634894 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 © 2006 The Royal Society Research Article Text 2006 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 2013-08-31T09:53:42Z Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning. Text Avian flu PubMed Central (PMC) Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 273 1600 2467 2475 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Research Article |
spellingShingle |
Research Article Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F Smith, David L Flahault, Antoine Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
topic_facet |
Research Article |
description |
Recent avian flu epidemics (A/H5N1) in Southeast Asia and case reports from around the world have led to fears of a human pandemic. Control of these outbreaks in birds would probably lead to reduced transmission of the avian virus to humans. This study presents a mathematical model based on stochastic farm-to-farm transmission that incorporates flock size and spatial contacts to evaluate the impact of control strategies. Fit to data from the recent epidemic in the Netherlands, we evaluate the efficacy of control strategies and forecast avian influenza dynamics. Our results identify high-risk areas of spread by mapping of the farm level reproductive number. Results suggest that an immediate depopulation of infected flocks following an accurate and quick diagnosis would have a greater impact than simply depopulating surrounding flocks. Understanding the relative importance of different control measures is essential for response planning. |
format |
Text |
author |
Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F Smith, David L Flahault, Antoine |
author_facet |
Le Menach, Arnaud Vergu, Elisabeta Grais, Rebecca F Smith, David L Flahault, Antoine |
author_sort |
Le Menach, Arnaud |
title |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_short |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_full |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_fullStr |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_full_unstemmed |
Key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
title_sort |
key strategies for reducing spread of avian influenza among commercial poultry holdings: lessons for transmission to humans |
publisher |
The Royal Society |
publishDate |
2006 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634894 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959637 https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 |
genre |
Avian flu |
genre_facet |
Avian flu |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1634894 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 |
op_rights |
© 2006 The Royal Society |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3609 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences |
container_volume |
273 |
container_issue |
1600 |
container_start_page |
2467 |
op_container_end_page |
2475 |
_version_ |
1766364802158952448 |