Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Liu, Yusen, Sun, Cheng, Li, Jianping, Kucharski, Fred, Di Lorenzo, Emanuele, Abid, Muhammad Adnan, Li, Xichen
• Format: Text
• Language: English
• Published: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
• Subjects: Article; Amundsen Sea; Antarctic; Arctic; Pacific; Antarc*; Global warming; Sea ice
• Online Access: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10719290/; http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/38092787; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-44094-1

Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014–2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8–16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = −0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.