Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict
The outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated the natural gas supply shortage in European countries. European countries restarted coal-fired power plants to maintain economic and social operations. The uneven distribution of coal resources in the world makes coal international trade i...
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ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:10518322 2023-10-29T02:37:23+01:00 Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict Huang, Hui Zhao, Jingying Liu, Haibin Ren, Shuai Liu, Meng Liu, Haiping An, Feng Guo, Yanlei An, Haizhong 2023-09-24 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10518322/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37743369 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 en eng Nature Publishing Group UK http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10518322/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37743369 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 © Springer Nature Limited 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . Sci Rep Article Text 2023 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 2023-10-01T00:47:06Z The outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated the natural gas supply shortage in European countries. European countries restarted coal-fired power plants to maintain economic and social operations. The uneven distribution of coal resources in the world makes coal international trade inevitable. The intricate trade relations between trading countries have formed a coal trade network. When a country’s coal exports are limited due to geopolitical factors, it will cause coal supply risks. The risk will spread to more countries along the trade network, eventually leading to the collapse of the trade network. This paper builds a crisis propagation model of the coal supply under the Russia-Ukraine conflict using the cascading failure model. The results showed that the Czech Republic, Ireland, Portugal, and Bulgaria become abnormal as the proportion of coal exports β increases. When the Russian Federation reduced its coal exports by 80% and countries maintained only 10% coal exports against crisis, 23 European countries were the worst. Iceland, Ireland, Turkey and other countries were spread by the indirect risk and became abnormal countries. The Czech Republic and Bulgaria were spread by multiple risk and became abnormal countries. Text Iceland PubMed Central (PMC) Scientific Reports 13 1 |
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Article Huang, Hui Zhao, Jingying Liu, Haibin Ren, Shuai Liu, Meng Liu, Haiping An, Feng Guo, Yanlei An, Haizhong Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
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The outbreak of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict exacerbated the natural gas supply shortage in European countries. European countries restarted coal-fired power plants to maintain economic and social operations. The uneven distribution of coal resources in the world makes coal international trade inevitable. The intricate trade relations between trading countries have formed a coal trade network. When a country’s coal exports are limited due to geopolitical factors, it will cause coal supply risks. The risk will spread to more countries along the trade network, eventually leading to the collapse of the trade network. This paper builds a crisis propagation model of the coal supply under the Russia-Ukraine conflict using the cascading failure model. The results showed that the Czech Republic, Ireland, Portugal, and Bulgaria become abnormal as the proportion of coal exports β increases. When the Russian Federation reduced its coal exports by 80% and countries maintained only 10% coal exports against crisis, 23 European countries were the worst. Iceland, Ireland, Turkey and other countries were spread by the indirect risk and became abnormal countries. The Czech Republic and Bulgaria were spread by multiple risk and became abnormal countries. |
format |
Text |
author |
Huang, Hui Zhao, Jingying Liu, Haibin Ren, Shuai Liu, Meng Liu, Haiping An, Feng Guo, Yanlei An, Haizhong |
author_facet |
Huang, Hui Zhao, Jingying Liu, Haibin Ren, Shuai Liu, Meng Liu, Haiping An, Feng Guo, Yanlei An, Haizhong |
author_sort |
Huang, Hui |
title |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_short |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_full |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_fullStr |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_full_unstemmed |
Research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the Russia-Ukraine conflict |
title_sort |
research on the crisis propagation in the global coal trade under the russia-ukraine conflict |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group UK |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10518322/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37743369 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 |
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Iceland |
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Sci Rep |
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10518322/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37743369 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 |
op_rights |
© Springer Nature Limited 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-42643-8 |
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