Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe
Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns di...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , |
Format: | Text |
Language: | English |
Published: |
National Academy of Sciences
2023
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10068780/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36943887 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
id |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:10068780 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftpubmed:oai:pubmedcentral.nih.gov:10068780 2023-10-09T21:54:00+02:00 Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jezequel, Aglae Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal 2023-03-21 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10068780/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36943887 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 en eng National Academy of Sciences http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10068780/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36943887 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Physical Sciences Text 2023 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 2023-09-24T00:41:52Z Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind. Text North Atlantic PubMed Central (PMC) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 120 13 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Physical Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Physical Sciences Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jezequel, Aglae Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
topic_facet |
Physical Sciences |
description |
Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind. |
format |
Text |
author |
Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jezequel, Aglae Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal |
author_facet |
Faranda, Davide Messori, Gabriele Jezequel, Aglae Vrac, Mathieu Yiou, Pascal |
author_sort |
Faranda, Davide |
title |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_short |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_full |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe |
title_sort |
atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in europe |
publisher |
National Academy of Sciences |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10068780/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36943887 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A |
op_relation |
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10068780/ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36943887 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2023 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) . |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2214525120 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
120 |
container_issue |
13 |
_version_ |
1779317407403212800 |