The impact of intra-annual temperature fluctuations on agricultural temperature extreme events and attribution analysis in mainland China.

• Published in: Science of The Total Environment
• Main Authors: Han, Jiahao, Fang, Shibo, Wang, Xinyu, Zhuo, Wen, Yu, Yanru, Peng, Xiaofeng, Zhang, Yuanda
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier Science 2024
• Subjects: Agricultural extreme temperature events; Attribution analysis; Climate indicators; Intra-annual temperature fluctuations; Arctic; Pacific
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174904; https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39059648

Daily temperature variations, which tend to exhibit non-constant and non-linear patterns, are often characterized by intra-annual fluctuations that cause severe and frequent extreme temperature events that have an enormous impact on agricultural production. However, the quantitative relationship between intra-annual temperature fluctuations and extreme agricultural temperatures remains unclear. We aimed to investigate intra-annual temperature fluctuation changes based on daily meteorological data in nine agricultural regions across China from 1960 to 2022 and quantify the impact of temperature fluctuations on extreme agricultural temperatures during crop growth periods. Moreover, an attribution analysis of intra-annual temperature fluctuations was performed using climate indicators. Main results showed: (1) intra-annual temperature fluctuations in each region exhibited a certain decrease, and the spatial distribution showed a significant decreasing trend from north to south. (2) Intra-annual temperature fluctuations have moderately exacerbated extreme agricultural hot and cold events during growth periods, which have brought serious challenges to agriculture owing to advances in phenology and unsynchronized rain heat compared to climate warming. The proportion of positive correlations between temperature fluctuations and extreme temperatures was much larger than that of the negative correlations in nearly all of China (percentage of stations: 20.5 %), and the negative correlation was concentrated only in southern China (percentage of stations: 3.7 %). (3) Hydrothermal coupling and elevation moderately affected intra-annual temperature fluctuations. Average temperature, relative humidity, and elevation had negative correlations with intra-annual temperature fluctuations, the correlation coefficients (R) were - 0.62, -0.42 and - 0.12, respectively; however, reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) exhibited a positive correlation (R: 0.29), and all reached highly significant levels (P < 0.01). Climate indicators mainly affected intra-annual temperature fluctuations in eastern China. Specifically, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), unstable Asia Polar Vortex, and increased Western Pacific Subtropical High have enhanced temperature fluctuations. The deepened East Asian Trough and Arctic Oscillation of the negative phase weakened the intra-annual temperature fluctuations. This investigation highlights the crucial function of temperature fluctuation in intensifying extreme temperature occurrences and provides a more reasonable scientific foundation for extreme event prediction and agricultural planning.