Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability.
How global warming is impacting winter cold extremes is uncertain. Previous work has found decreasing winter temperature variability over North America which suggests a reduction in frequency and intensity of cold extremes relative to mean changes. However, others argue that cold air outbreaks are b...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38997288 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11245492/ |
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ftpubmed:38997288 2024-09-15T18:08:07+00:00 Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. Blackport, Russell Fyfe, John C 2024 Jul 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38997288 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11245492/ eng eng Nature Publishing Group https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38997288 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11245492/ © 2024. Crown. Nat Commun ISSN:2041-1723 Volume:15 Issue:1 Journal Article 2024 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 2024-07-15T16:03:00Z How global warming is impacting winter cold extremes is uncertain. Previous work has found decreasing winter temperature variability over North America which suggests a reduction in frequency and intensity of cold extremes relative to mean changes. However, others argue that cold air outbreaks are becoming more likely because of Arctic-induced changes in atmospheric circulation. Here we show that cold extremes over North America have warmed substantially faster than the winter mean temperature since 1980. This amplified warming is linked to both decreasing variance and changes in higher moments of the temperature distributions. Climate model simulations with historical forcings robustly capture the observed trends in extremes and variability. A pattern-based detection and attribution analysis shows that the changes in variability are detectable in observations and can be attributed to human influence. Our results highlight that human emissions are warming North American extreme cold temperatures beyond only shifting the winter mean temperature. Article in Journal/Newspaper Global warming PubMed Central (PMC) Nature Communications 15 1 |
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English |
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How global warming is impacting winter cold extremes is uncertain. Previous work has found decreasing winter temperature variability over North America which suggests a reduction in frequency and intensity of cold extremes relative to mean changes. However, others argue that cold air outbreaks are becoming more likely because of Arctic-induced changes in atmospheric circulation. Here we show that cold extremes over North America have warmed substantially faster than the winter mean temperature since 1980. This amplified warming is linked to both decreasing variance and changes in higher moments of the temperature distributions. Climate model simulations with historical forcings robustly capture the observed trends in extremes and variability. A pattern-based detection and attribution analysis shows that the changes in variability are detectable in observations and can be attributed to human influence. Our results highlight that human emissions are warming North American extreme cold temperatures beyond only shifting the winter mean temperature. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Blackport, Russell Fyfe, John C |
spellingShingle |
Blackport, Russell Fyfe, John C Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. |
author_facet |
Blackport, Russell Fyfe, John C |
author_sort |
Blackport, Russell |
title |
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. |
title_short |
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. |
title_full |
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. |
title_fullStr |
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amplified warming of North American cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. |
title_sort |
amplified warming of north american cold extremes linked to human-induced changes in temperature variability. |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38997288 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11245492/ |
genre |
Global warming |
genre_facet |
Global warming |
op_source |
Nat Commun ISSN:2041-1723 Volume:15 Issue:1 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38997288 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11245492/ |
op_rights |
© 2024. Crown. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49734-8 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1810445467449819136 |