Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America.
Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the gl...
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ftpubmed:38994349 2024-09-15T17:47:03+00:00 Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America. Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina Zaitchik, Benjamin Pan, William K Zhou, Yifan Badr, Hamada 2024 May https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0064.1 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38994349 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11238824/ eng eng https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0064.1 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38994349 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11238824/ J Hydrometeorol ISSN:1525-7541 Volume:25 Issue:5 Climate models Forecast verification/skill Land surface model Seasonal forecasting South America Subseasonal variability Journal Article 2024 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0064.1 2024-07-14T16:03:00Z Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic PubMed Central (PMC) Journal of Hydrometeorology 25 5 709 733 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate models Forecast verification/skill Land surface model Seasonal forecasting South America Subseasonal variability |
spellingShingle |
Climate models Forecast verification/skill Land surface model Seasonal forecasting South America Subseasonal variability Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina Zaitchik, Benjamin Pan, William K Zhou, Yifan Badr, Hamada Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America. |
topic_facet |
Climate models Forecast verification/skill Land surface model Seasonal forecasting South America Subseasonal variability |
description |
Hydrological predictions at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) time scales can support improved decision-making in climate-dependent sectors like agriculture and hydropower. Here, we present an S2S hydrological forecasting system (S2S-HFS) for western tropical South America (WTSA). The system uses the global NASA Goddard Earth Observing System S2S meteorological forecast system (GEOS-S2S) in combination with the generalized analog regression downscaling algorithm and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). In this implementation study, we evaluate system performance for 3-month hydrological forecasts for the austral autumn season (March-May) using ensemble hindcasts for 2002-17. Results indicate that the S2S-HFS generally offers skill in predictions of monthly precipitation up to 1-month lead, evapotranspiration up to 2 months lead, and soil moisture content up to 3 months lead. Ecoregions with better hindcast performance are located either in the coastal lowlands or in the Amazon lowland forest. We perform dedicated analysis to understand how two important teleconnections affecting the region are represented in the S2S-HFS: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We find that forecast skill for all variables at 1-month lead is enhanced during the positive phase of ENSO and the negative phase of AAO. Overall, this study indicates that there is meaningful skill in the S2S-HFS for many ecoregions in WTSA, particularly for long memory variables such as soil moisture. The skill of the precipitation forecast, however, decays rapidly after forecast initialization, a phenomenon that is consistent with S2S meteorological forecasts over much of the world. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina Zaitchik, Benjamin Pan, William K Zhou, Yifan Badr, Hamada |
author_facet |
Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina Zaitchik, Benjamin Pan, William K Zhou, Yifan Badr, Hamada |
author_sort |
Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina |
title |
Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America. |
title_short |
Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America. |
title_full |
Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America. |
title_fullStr |
Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Contributions of Initial Conditions and Meteorological Forecast to Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Hydrological Forecast Skill in Western Tropical South America. |
title_sort |
contributions of initial conditions and meteorological forecast to subseasonal-to-seasonal hydrological forecast skill in western tropical south america. |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0064.1 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38994349 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11238824/ |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic |
op_source |
J Hydrometeorol ISSN:1525-7541 Volume:25 Issue:5 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0064.1 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38994349 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11238824/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-23-0064.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrometeorology |
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25 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
709 |
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733 |
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1810495583728697344 |