Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage.
The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it's important to consider additional environmental v...
Published in: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400355121 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38976732 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11260157/ |
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ftpubmed:38976732 2024-09-15T18:02:10+00:00 Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage. Henke, Martin T Miesse, Tyler de Souza de Lima, Andre Ferreira, Celso Ravens, Thomas Pundt, Ralph 2024 Jul 16 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400355121 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38976732 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11260157/ eng eng Atypon https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400355121 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38976732 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11260157/ Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ISSN:1091-6490 Volume:121 Issue:29 Arctic climate change maritime development ocean waves sea ice Journal Article 2024 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400355121 2024-07-22T16:02:00Z The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it's important to consider additional environmental variables affected by climate change which may threaten maritime operations. Here, we use four climate model projections to produce ocean wave simulations and investigate the future magnitude and seasonality of sea ice risk coupled with wave hazards. Analyzing the potential 5 mo shipping season spanning July to November along the Northwest Passage maritime route between 2020 and 2070, our results show a substantial decline in sea ice risk over the analysis time period, resulting in near open-water conditions along the route for a 5 mo period by 2070. However, as seasonal ice coverage retreats, there is a significant upward trend in wave heights along the route during July and November, with the timing of the greatest wave height shifting away from September toward later in the season. This result is pertinent as the possibility of seasonally unprecedented extreme waves coupled with subfreezing late fall temperatures makes for an especially hazardous environment, thus emphasizing the importance of considering the interaction between evolving sea ice and interdependent hazards when predicting the risks and challenges faced by Arctic maritime operations. Article in Journal/Newspaper Climate change Northwest passage Sea ice PubMed Central (PMC) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121 29 |
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Open Polar |
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PubMed Central (PMC) |
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language |
English |
topic |
Arctic climate change maritime development ocean waves sea ice |
spellingShingle |
Arctic climate change maritime development ocean waves sea ice Henke, Martin T Miesse, Tyler de Souza de Lima, Andre Ferreira, Celso Ravens, Thomas Pundt, Ralph Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage. |
topic_facet |
Arctic climate change maritime development ocean waves sea ice |
description |
The ongoing and projected retreat of Arctic sea ice has garnered international interest toward the utilization of Arctic maritime corridors for shipping, tourism, and development. Yet, with potential for increasing traffic in Arctic regions, it's important to consider additional environmental variables affected by climate change which may threaten maritime operations. Here, we use four climate model projections to produce ocean wave simulations and investigate the future magnitude and seasonality of sea ice risk coupled with wave hazards. Analyzing the potential 5 mo shipping season spanning July to November along the Northwest Passage maritime route between 2020 and 2070, our results show a substantial decline in sea ice risk over the analysis time period, resulting in near open-water conditions along the route for a 5 mo period by 2070. However, as seasonal ice coverage retreats, there is a significant upward trend in wave heights along the route during July and November, with the timing of the greatest wave height shifting away from September toward later in the season. This result is pertinent as the possibility of seasonally unprecedented extreme waves coupled with subfreezing late fall temperatures makes for an especially hazardous environment, thus emphasizing the importance of considering the interaction between evolving sea ice and interdependent hazards when predicting the risks and challenges faced by Arctic maritime operations. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Henke, Martin T Miesse, Tyler de Souza de Lima, Andre Ferreira, Celso Ravens, Thomas Pundt, Ralph |
author_facet |
Henke, Martin T Miesse, Tyler de Souza de Lima, Andre Ferreira, Celso Ravens, Thomas Pundt, Ralph |
author_sort |
Henke, Martin T |
title |
Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage. |
title_short |
Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage. |
title_full |
Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage. |
title_fullStr |
Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evolving Arctic maritime hazards: Declining sea ice and rising waves in the Northwest Passage. |
title_sort |
evolving arctic maritime hazards: declining sea ice and rising waves in the northwest passage. |
publisher |
Atypon |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400355121 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38976732 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11260157/ |
genre |
Climate change Northwest passage Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Climate change Northwest passage Sea ice |
op_source |
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ISSN:1091-6490 Volume:121 Issue:29 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400355121 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38976732 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11260157/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2400355121 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
121 |
container_issue |
29 |
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1810439512817401856 |