Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula.
The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has displayed a propensity for persistent blocking ridges and anticyclonic conditions, particularly during recent summertime extreme weather events. This study investigates atmospheric blocking patterns over the AP through historical (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100, SS...
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ftpubmed:38705290 2024-06-09T07:39:30+00:00 Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. Bozkurt, Deniz Marín, Julio C Verdugo, Cristina Barrett, Bradford S 2024 May 04 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172852 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38705290 eng eng Elsevier Science https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172852 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38705290 Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Sci Total Environ ISSN:1879-1026 Volume:931 Antarctic Peninsula Blocking ridge CMIP Climate change Model uncertainty Journal Article 2024 ftpubmed https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172852 2024-05-10T16:03:00Z The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has displayed a propensity for persistent blocking ridges and anticyclonic conditions, particularly during recent summertime extreme weather events. This study investigates atmospheric blocking patterns over the AP through historical (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100, SSP5-8.5) periods using ERA5 reanalysis and six CMIP6 models, including multi-member realizations from two models totaling ten simulations. We focus particularly on 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) and near-surface air temperature (T2m) anomalies. The historical analysis highlights significant differences between the CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis, especially in the austral winter, with EC-Earth3 and INM-CM4 models matching closest with the ERA5. Future projections show that while the northern AP and the Drake Passage largely do not exhibit a clear trend towards increased blocking, there are exceptions. The EC-Earth3 model predicts more blocking-like conditions northwest of the AP in summer and a pronounced ridge over the Bellingshausen Sea in winter, indicating a potential increase in blocking events. The INM-CM4 model projects a minor increase in summer Z500 heights off the western and southern AP, without clear blocking patterns over the AP, and negligible winter changes. Localized intensification is noted in the northern parts of the blocking domain and southern AP during extreme blocking conditions. These variations are mirrored in T2m anomalies, suggesting warming in the northern and southern sections of AP but little change elsewhere. The results of this study underscore the need to more accurately capture complex blocking mechanisms and their impacts on regional climate patterns around the AP. We also suggest employing refined blocking definitions and incorporating a broader range of climate models to enhance our understanding of blocking patterns and their impacts in a changing climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Bellingshausen Sea Drake Passage PubMed Central (PMC) Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral Drake Passage Bellingshausen Sea Science of The Total Environment 931 172852 |
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Open Polar |
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PubMed Central (PMC) |
op_collection_id |
ftpubmed |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic Peninsula Blocking ridge CMIP Climate change Model uncertainty |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic Peninsula Blocking ridge CMIP Climate change Model uncertainty Bozkurt, Deniz Marín, Julio C Verdugo, Cristina Barrett, Bradford S Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. |
topic_facet |
Antarctic Peninsula Blocking ridge CMIP Climate change Model uncertainty |
description |
The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) has displayed a propensity for persistent blocking ridges and anticyclonic conditions, particularly during recent summertime extreme weather events. This study investigates atmospheric blocking patterns over the AP through historical (1981-2010) and future (2071-2100, SSP5-8.5) periods using ERA5 reanalysis and six CMIP6 models, including multi-member realizations from two models totaling ten simulations. We focus particularly on 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) and near-surface air temperature (T2m) anomalies. The historical analysis highlights significant differences between the CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis, especially in the austral winter, with EC-Earth3 and INM-CM4 models matching closest with the ERA5. Future projections show that while the northern AP and the Drake Passage largely do not exhibit a clear trend towards increased blocking, there are exceptions. The EC-Earth3 model predicts more blocking-like conditions northwest of the AP in summer and a pronounced ridge over the Bellingshausen Sea in winter, indicating a potential increase in blocking events. The INM-CM4 model projects a minor increase in summer Z500 heights off the western and southern AP, without clear blocking patterns over the AP, and negligible winter changes. Localized intensification is noted in the northern parts of the blocking domain and southern AP during extreme blocking conditions. These variations are mirrored in T2m anomalies, suggesting warming in the northern and southern sections of AP but little change elsewhere. The results of this study underscore the need to more accurately capture complex blocking mechanisms and their impacts on regional climate patterns around the AP. We also suggest employing refined blocking definitions and incorporating a broader range of climate models to enhance our understanding of blocking patterns and their impacts in a changing climate. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bozkurt, Deniz Marín, Julio C Verdugo, Cristina Barrett, Bradford S |
author_facet |
Bozkurt, Deniz Marín, Julio C Verdugo, Cristina Barrett, Bradford S |
author_sort |
Bozkurt, Deniz |
title |
Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. |
title_short |
Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. |
title_full |
Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. |
title_fullStr |
Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. |
title_sort |
atmospheric blocking and temperatures in the antarctic peninsula. |
publisher |
Elsevier Science |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172852 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38705290 |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral Drake Passage Bellingshausen Sea |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Austral Drake Passage Bellingshausen Sea |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Bellingshausen Sea Drake Passage |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Peninsula Bellingshausen Sea Drake Passage |
op_source |
Sci Total Environ ISSN:1879-1026 Volume:931 |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172852 https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38705290 |
op_rights |
Copyright © 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.172852 |
container_title |
Science of The Total Environment |
container_volume |
931 |
container_start_page |
172852 |
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1801379984157179904 |