Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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2023
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620A-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620C-6 |
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ftpubman:oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3592601 2024-06-23T07:47:44+00:00 Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty Seroussi, H. Verjans, V. Nowicki, S. Payne, A. Goelzer, H. Lipscomb, W. Abe-Ouchi, A. Agosta, C. Albrecht, T. Asay-Davis, X. Barthel, A. Calov, R. Cullather, R. Dumas, C. Galton-Fenzi, B. Gladstone, R. Golledge, N. Gregory, J. Greve, R. Hattermann, T. Hoffman, M. Humbert, A. Huybrechts, P. Jourdain, N. Kleiner, T. Larour, E. Leguy, G. Lowry, D. Little, C. Morlighem, M. Pattyn, F. Pelle, T. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Reese, R. Schlegel, N. Shepherd, A. Simon, E. Smith, R. Straneo, F. Sun, S. Trusel, L. Van Breedam, J. Van Katwyk, P. van de Wal, R. Winkelmann, R. Zhao, C. Zhang, T. Zwinger, T. 2023 application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620A-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620C-6 eng eng info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620A-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620C-6 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ The Cryosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2023 ftpubman https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 2024-06-11T14:10:08Z The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) Whillans ENVELOPE(-64.250,-64.250,-84.450,-84.450) The Cryosphere 17 12 5197 5217 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Max Planck Society: MPG.PuRe |
op_collection_id |
ftpubman |
language |
English |
description |
The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Seroussi, H. Verjans, V. Nowicki, S. Payne, A. Goelzer, H. Lipscomb, W. Abe-Ouchi, A. Agosta, C. Albrecht, T. Asay-Davis, X. Barthel, A. Calov, R. Cullather, R. Dumas, C. Galton-Fenzi, B. Gladstone, R. Golledge, N. Gregory, J. Greve, R. Hattermann, T. Hoffman, M. Humbert, A. Huybrechts, P. Jourdain, N. Kleiner, T. Larour, E. Leguy, G. Lowry, D. Little, C. Morlighem, M. Pattyn, F. Pelle, T. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Reese, R. Schlegel, N. Shepherd, A. Simon, E. Smith, R. Straneo, F. Sun, S. Trusel, L. Van Breedam, J. Van Katwyk, P. van de Wal, R. Winkelmann, R. Zhao, C. Zhang, T. Zwinger, T. |
spellingShingle |
Seroussi, H. Verjans, V. Nowicki, S. Payne, A. Goelzer, H. Lipscomb, W. Abe-Ouchi, A. Agosta, C. Albrecht, T. Asay-Davis, X. Barthel, A. Calov, R. Cullather, R. Dumas, C. Galton-Fenzi, B. Gladstone, R. Golledge, N. Gregory, J. Greve, R. Hattermann, T. Hoffman, M. Humbert, A. Huybrechts, P. Jourdain, N. Kleiner, T. Larour, E. Leguy, G. Lowry, D. Little, C. Morlighem, M. Pattyn, F. Pelle, T. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Reese, R. Schlegel, N. Shepherd, A. Simon, E. Smith, R. Straneo, F. Sun, S. Trusel, L. Van Breedam, J. Van Katwyk, P. van de Wal, R. Winkelmann, R. Zhao, C. Zhang, T. Zwinger, T. Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
author_facet |
Seroussi, H. Verjans, V. Nowicki, S. Payne, A. Goelzer, H. Lipscomb, W. Abe-Ouchi, A. Agosta, C. Albrecht, T. Asay-Davis, X. Barthel, A. Calov, R. Cullather, R. Dumas, C. Galton-Fenzi, B. Gladstone, R. Golledge, N. Gregory, J. Greve, R. Hattermann, T. Hoffman, M. Humbert, A. Huybrechts, P. Jourdain, N. Kleiner, T. Larour, E. Leguy, G. Lowry, D. Little, C. Morlighem, M. Pattyn, F. Pelle, T. Price, S. Quiquet, A. Reese, R. Schlegel, N. Shepherd, A. Simon, E. Smith, R. Straneo, F. Sun, S. Trusel, L. Van Breedam, J. Van Katwyk, P. van de Wal, R. Winkelmann, R. Zhao, C. Zhang, T. Zwinger, T. |
author_sort |
Seroussi, H. |
title |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_short |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_fullStr |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_full_unstemmed |
Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
title_sort |
insights into the vulnerability of antarctic glaciers from the ismip6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620A-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620C-6 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) ENVELOPE(-64.250,-64.250,-84.450,-84.450) |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Whillans |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic East Antarctica West Antarctica Pine Island Glacier Whillans |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Pine Island Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere West Antarctica |
op_source |
The Cryosphere |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620A-8 http://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-620C-6 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-5197-2023 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
5197 |
op_container_end_page |
5217 |
_version_ |
1802651900424749056 |